India-China relations are at a critical juncture, marked by a post-Galwan trust deficit, persistent border disputes, and trade imbalance. To navigate this, India must strengthen border infrastructure, diversify supply chains, and engage in assertive diplomacy. A strategic and patient approach is essential to safeguard national interests.
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Picture Courtesy: THE HINDU
Indian Prime Minister to visit China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit signals a potential reset in India-China relations, marking his first trip to China since the 2020 Galwan border clash.
Early years and cooperation (1950s)
Border disputes and conflict (1960s-1980s)
Economic rise and border tensions (1990s-2000s)
Escalating tensions and current situation (2010s-present)
Why is China Important to India?
India's policy towards China anchors on "mutual respect, mutual sensitivity, and mutual interests", stresses maintaining border peace remains crucial for broader bilateral ties.
Economic interdependence
Top Trading Partner: China is the 2nd largest trading partners of India, after United States. In FY25, India's bilateral trade with China reached $127.7 billion, with imports growing by 11.52% to $113.45 billion and exports decreasing by 14.5% to $14.25 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $99.2 billion.
Crucial Supplier: India heavily relies on Chinese imports for essential goods like telecommunications equipment, smartphone components, laptops, PCs, electronics, machinery, organic chemicals, pharmaceuticals (like Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs)), plastics, fertilizers, and auto parts.
Infrastructure and Manufacturing: Chinese investments play a role in India's high-tech and startup ecosystems, with numerous Indian unicorns having received Chinese investments.
Global Supply Chains: China's deep integration into global supply chains means India depends on Chinese intermediate and capital goods to maintain its manufacturing capacity.
Geopolitical context
Regional Influence: China has invested heavily in South Asian projects, with over $60 billion alone in Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Border Disputes: India share 3,488 km border with China, directly impact India's security and regional stability.
Competition and Cooperation: While competition for influence and leadership exists between the two Asian giants, areas of convergence, like positions on sovereignty and leading the Global South, promote cooperation in international forums.
Strategic Autonomy: India aim for strategic autonomy in its foreign policy, balancing its economic needs and security interests while engaging with both the US and China.
Diplomatic Dialogue: Both countries maintain various dialogue mechanisms, including the Special Representatives (SR) mechanism on the boundary question and the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination (WMCC) on border affairs.
Trade and Economy: Despite the trade deficit, robust trade continues, with ongoing discussions aimed at addressing imbalances and fostering engagement.
Cultural and People-to-People Exchanges: India and China promote cultural ties, with initiatives like the resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra pilgrimage and academic collaborations.
Multilateralism: Both nations cooperate within international groupings such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and the New Development Bank (NDB), promoting South-South cooperation and a more equitable global order.
Water Data Sharing: China has resumed sharing hydrological data on the Brahmaputra and Sutlej rivers, contributing to early warning systems.
Border Disputes: Line of Actual Control (LAC) remains undefined, leading to frequent incursions and militarization. China occupies 38,000 sq km of Aksai Chin and claims 90,000 sq km of Arunachal Pradesh, complicating demarcation efforts. China's construction of dual-use villages along the border exacerbates India's concerns about "salami-slicing" tactics.
Trust Deficit: The Galwan clash in 2020 resulted in Indian soldier deaths, created a strategic break and deep trust deficit that continues to hinder relations despite disengagements.
Economic Imbalance: India faces a nearly $100 billion trade deficit with China. India's reliance on Chinese imports, creates economic vulnerability, recently china has placed restrictions on the export of critical minerals, impacting India's green sector and climate goals.
Nexus with Pakistan: China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), particularly the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) passing through Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK), directly violates on India's sovereignty and deepens China's strategic alliance with Pakistan.
South China Sea Dispute: India's advocacy for freedom of navigation and a rules-based order clashes with China's expansive claims.
Technological Dependence and Cyber Threats: Chinese firms dominate India's smartphone market (around 75% share), and critical sectors like electric vehicles and telecom remain reliant on Chinese technology. India has banned over 300 Chinese apps and excluded Huawei from 5G trials due to security concerns, following cyberattacks on Indian networks.
Water Politics: China's upstream control and mega-dam projects on transboundary rivers like the Brahmaputra (e.g., Motuo/Medog Dam, Zangmu Dam) pose threats to India's water security and regional environmental stability, with concerns over lack of transparency and consultation.
Maritime and Regional Influence: China's growing presence in the Indian Ocean Region through initiatives like the 'String of Pearls' challenges India's strategic autonomy and influence.
Global Diplomatic Obstacle: China blocks India's bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). It has also shielded Pakistan-based terrorists from UN sanctions, hindering India's counter-terrorism efforts.
Sustained Strategic Dialogue: Both nations must maintain high-level and functional dialogue mechanisms, including SR-level and WMCC talks, to achieve full disengagement, de-escalation, and restoration of peace and tranquility along the LAC.
Economic Rebalancing: India should continue diversifying its supply chains through the "China+1" strategy while selectively allowing beneficial Chinese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on its own terms.
Enhanced Border Management and Confidence Building: India must accelerate the construction of strategic infrastructure along the LAC, including roads, advanced landing grounds (ALGs), and surveillance assets, to match Chinese deployments.
Robust Maritime Deterrence: India should enhance presence and capabilities in the Indian Ocean Region through initiatives like the Sagarmala project and continued cooperation with partners in the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) to counter China's growing naval outreach.
Lead Regional Development: India should strengthen development initiatives in the South Asian region (e.g., Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project) to build goodwill and offer alternatives to China's Belt and Road Initiative.
Technological Self-Reliance: India must prioritize building indigenous capabilities in critical technologies such as semiconductors, APIs, and solar equipment through initiatives like the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme and the India Semiconductor Mission to reduce its dependence on Chinese technology.
Explore Cooperation in Non-Contentious Areas: Areas like outer space, earthquake science, and oceanography offer potential for productive collaboration, building trust and showcasing shared scientific aspirations.
Strategic Autonomy: India must continue to balance its relationships with the United States and other strategic partners, asserting its role as a civilizational balancer in a multipolar Asia rather than a proxy within geopolitical blocs.
Expand Cultural and People-to-People Links: Resuming and expanding cultural exchanges and pilgrimages, like the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra, can help bridge the trust deficit and promote mutual understanding.
Source: THE HINDU
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PRACTICE QUESTION Q. China's growing influence in the Indian Ocean Region poses a significant challenge to India's strategic autonomy. Critically analyze. 250 words |
The main issue is the differing perceptions of the Line of Actual Control (LAC), which is not formally demarcated, leading to a long-standing territorial dispute.
It's a network of Chinese ports and facilities in the Indian Ocean Region, which India views as an attempt to encircle it and challenge its maritime dominance.
The LAC is a poorly defined, de facto border between India and China, reflecting the positions of their forces after the 1962 war, and is not a legally agreed boundary.
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