POVERTY ESTIMATION IN INDIA: CHALLENGES AND WAY FORWARD

India’s poverty debate contrasts 5.3% extreme poverty with 23.9% economic vulnerability using World Bank benchmarks. The government now emphasizes the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) over old monetary lines. Experts argue MPI should complement income measures, calling for better data, accountability, and a transparent policy dashboard.

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Picture Courtesy:  THEHINDUBUSINESSLINE

Context

A debate has emerged over India’s poverty estimates due to different measurement methods and data sources. 

Read all about: POVERTY IN INDIA: EVIDENCE, CHALLENGES AND WAY FORWARD l TRUTH ABOUT POVERTY IN INDIA l INDIA'S EXTREME POVERTY HITS 5.3% l GLOBAL MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY INDEX(MPI) 2025 REPORT

Issue of Poverty Measurement in India 

The debate originates from two different international poverty lines set by the World Bank. These are not contradictory but are designed to measure different levels of economic distress.

Metric

Poverty Line (2021 PPP terms)

Poverty Rate (2022-23)

Policy Focus

Extreme Poverty

$3.00 per person per day

5.3% (down from 27% in 2011-12)

Measures the population living at a bare survival level. India has made remarkable progress in reducing this.

Economic Vulnerability

$4.20 per person per day

23.9% (342 million people)

Identifies a population that is not destitute but remains insecure and highly vulnerable to economic shocks (e.g., inflation, job loss). This is considered more relevant for lower-middle-income countries like India.

The gap between 5% and 24% reflects two different policy concerns: celebrating success against extreme poverty while acknowledging the vast population yet to achieve economic security.

Government's Stance: Focus on Multidimensional Poverty

The government has highlighted the National Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) as the primary tool for poverty measurement, rather than updating monetary-based poverty lines.

What is the National Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI)?

  • Developed by NITI Aayog in collaboration with the UNDP and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI).
  • It measures non-monetary deprivations across three key dimensions: Health, Education, and Standard of Living.
  • These dimensions are assessed using 12 specific indicators, including nutrition, sanitation, access to electricity, and clean cooking fuel.

India's Progress as per MPI

  • According to NITI Aayog's "National MPI: A Progress Review 2023", India's multidimensionally poor population declined from 24.85% in 2015-16 to 14.96% in 2019-21.
  • This signifies that 135.5 million people escaped multidimensional poverty during this period.
  • This achievement is a major step towards meeting Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Target 1.2 (reducing poverty in all its dimensions by at least half by 2030).

MPI vs Monetary Poverty Lines

While the MPI is a valuable tool, it is not designed to replace consumption-based poverty lines. They answer different, equally important questions:

  • MPI asks: Do people have access to basic services like schools, toilets, and clean fuel?
  • Monetary Poverty Line asks: Can people afford basic needs like food, rent, and healthcare?

International best practice, including guidance from the developers of the global MPI (OPHI and UNDP), suggests that both measures should be used together to provide a comprehensive view of poverty.

Methodological & Procedural Issues of Poverty Measurement

Survey Methodology Changes

The latest Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) for 2022-23 used a Modified Mixed Reference Period (MMRP), which, while potentially more accurate, complicates direct comparisons with previous surveys and may artificially lower poverty estimates.

The "Vulnerable" Population

The Global MPI 2024 report noted that besides the 16.4% of Indians who are MPI-poor, an additional 18.7% are classified as "vulnerable to multidimensional poverty," meaning they live just above the cutoff and are at high risk of falling back.

Why is an Updated Monetary Poverty Line Important? 

Targeting Social Safety Nets

An accurate poverty line is vital for designing and targeting welfare schemes like food subsidies and cash transfers to prevent exclusion errors.

Informing Minimum Wages

It serves as a benchmark for setting minimum wages to ensure a basic standard of living for workers.

Evolving with Aspirations

As India aims to become a 'Viksit Bharat' (Developed India) by 2047, its definition of poverty must evolve beyond mere subsistence to reflect a dignified standard of living. The last widely accepted line was based on the Tendulkar Committee methodology for 2011-12.

Way Forward 

Adopt a Dashboard Approach

India should use a dashboard of indicators, including an updated monetary poverty line, the National MPI, and income-based measures, to get a complete picture of poverty and vulnerability.

Update the Official Poverty Line

An expert committee should be formed to define a new official monetary poverty line that reflects contemporary consumption patterns, prices, and economic realities.

Leverage New Data

The upcoming National Household Income Survey (NHIS), set to launch in 2026, will be India's first pan-India survey on household income. Its data can provide a robust foundation for a new poverty estimation framework.

Strengthen Transparency

Ensuring transparency in survey methodologies and providing direct, data-backed answers in Parliament are crucial for statistical credibility and democratic accountability.

Conclusion

Achieving an inclusive and secure society requires redefining poverty beyond extreme deprivation to focus on economic vulnerability, ensuring national growth benefits all citizens as the nation develops.

Source: THEHINDUBUSINESSLINE

PRACTICE QUESTION

Q. How does India's shift from consumption-based poverty lines to the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) impact the efficacy of social safety net targeting? (150 words) 

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

The international poverty line is a monetary threshold used to measure extreme poverty. As of recent World Bank updates, extreme poverty is often defined as surviving on less than $2.15 per day. Other thresholds, such as $3.65 or $6.85 per day, are used to measure poverty in higher-income contexts.

An official, updated poverty line is crucial for accurately identifying beneficiaries for key welfare schemes like the National Food Security Act (NFSA), Ayushman Bharat, and Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana. Without it, millions of genuinely needy households risk being excluded from essential social safety nets. It also informs economic policies such as minimum wage setting.

While extreme poverty (bare survival) is nearly eliminated at 5.3%, the World Bank notes that for a "lower-middle-income country" like India, a higher threshold ($4.20/day) might be more appropriate. At this higher standard, about 24% of the population would still be considered poor.

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