INDIA-MYANMAR RELATIONS: STATUS, CHALLENEGS, WAY FORWARD

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Context

Myanmar's military junta holding elections to legitimize its rule, with the oppositions leaders imprisoned, presents India with a complex dilemma, impacting its 'Act East' policy.

Evolution of Indian-Myanmar Relations

Colonial era: Both India and Myanmar were part of British India until 1937.

Post-Independence: Both countries established diplomatic relations and signed a Treaty of Friendship in 1951.

Period of strain: Relations soured after the 1988 military coup in Myanmar, as India condemned the suppression of democracy.

"Look East" Policy: India shifted its approach, recognizing Myanmar's strategic importance and focusing on security and economic cooperation, including counter-insurgency efforts along the shared border.

• India's then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi's visit in 1987 laid the foundation for stronger ties.

"Act East" Policy: The "Look East" policy evolved into "Act East," to enhance trade, investment, and cultural ties with Southeast Asian nations, with Myanmar serving as a vital link and gateway.

Myanmar's democratic transition: Political reforms in 2011 presented opportunities for deeper engagement with a more democratic government.

Military coup: 2021 military coup, forcing India to navigate a complex path between supporting democracy and safeguarding its security and strategic interests. 

Why Myanmar is important to India?

Strategic Importance: Myanmar serves as India's land bridge to Southeast Asia, vital for India's "Act East" Policy.

• Myanmar shares a porous border with northeastern states, makes border security cooperation crucial for curbing cross-border insurgency and illegal drug trade (Golden triangle).

Maritime Security: Myanmar's coastline along the Bay of Bengal and close to the western entrance of the Malacca Strait are strategic for India's maritime security interests and access to Indo-Pacific trade routes.

Regional Stability: Stable Myanmar is essential for regional peace, mitigating the impact of refugee influxes and border instability in northeastern states.

Economic Significance: Myanmar is a key partner in major connectivity projects like the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Corridor (KMTTC) and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway,

• India is the fourth largest trading partner of Myanmar, with bilateral trade reaching US$2.1 billion in 2024-25.
• India invested in Myanmar's energy sector, strengthen India's energy security.   
• Myanmar, with an energy portfolio of more than $1.2 billion, is the largest destination for Indian investments in oil and gas in Southeast Asia.

Cultural Significance: India's Buddhist heritage deeply influence within Myanmar, where about 88% of the population follow Buddhism.

India's Policy Towards Myanmar

Act East Policy (AEP)

• Launch: 2014, at ASEAN-India Summit in Myanmar.
• Pillars: Commerce, Connectivity, Culture, and Capacity Building.
• Myanmar's Role: Its geographical position as a land and maritime bridge, linking India to ASEAN and the Indo-Pacific region through road, rail, and maritime routes.

Neighbourhood First Policy

• Focus: Prioritizing friendly and cooperative relations with immediate neighbors.
• With Myanmar: Promoting stability, security, and economic prosperity along the shared border, including addressing insurgency and facilitating cross-border movement. 

Bilateral agreements

• Border Trade Agreement (1994): Paved the way for operational border trade points like Moreh-Tamu.
• Bilateral Investment Promotion Agreement (BIPA) and Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement (DTAA): Facilitate investment and trade between the two countries.
• India-ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement (2009): Myanmar, as an ASEAN member, is a signatory.
• MoUs on Border Cooperation, Maritime Security, and Defence Cooperation: Foundation for security cooperation, including joint exercises, training, and surveillance to counter insurgent groups and drug trafficking. 

Multilateral engagement

• BIMSTEC: Both India and Myanmar are members of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), a regional grouping focused on connectivity, trade, and energy cooperation.
• Mekong-Ganga Cooperation (MGC): Both countries are members of MGC, which focuses on cooperation in tourism, education, culture, transport, and communication.
• ASEAN: Myanmar as members of ASEAN, provide a link for India to expand engagement with the regional bloc. 

Recent Approach of India

• Building fence along the Myanmar border and has suspended the Free Movement Regime (FMR).
• Supports a return to democracy in Myanmar but has refrained from strong condemnation of the military coup and violence.
  • Advocates for dialogue and reconciliation among stakeholders and supports ASEAN-led initiatives for peaceful resolution.
• Provides development assistance, over US$1.75 billion, in various sectors like health, education, and infrastructure.  
• Increasing engagement with military government to counter China's growing influence in Myanmar by investing in infrastructure projects and offering an alternative development model.

What are the Challenges and obstacles in India-Myanmar relations?

Internal instability in Myanmar: Conflict between the military junta and various ethnic armed organizations, challenging for India to navigate its policy objectives.

• Conflict resulted in cross-border insurgency, drug and arms trafficking, and the influx of refugees, raising internal security concerns.

Border challenges: Unfenced border, susceptible to cross-border crimes and the movement of insurgent groups.

• Free Movement Regime (FMR) exploited by militants and criminals for smuggling weapons, drugs, and counterfeit currency.
• Fencing the border faces opposition from local communities with strong ethnic and familial ties across the border.

Competition with China: China is Myanmar's largest trading partner and a major investor in infrastructure projects under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), challenge for India in balancing regional power dynamics.

Economic issues: Ongoing civil war, fighting between the military junta and various rebel groups, creating security concerns for workers and disrupting the progress of the infrastructure projects.

• Pandemic caused disruptions in the supply chain and slowed down the pace of work
• Kaladan project has seen only 10% physical progress on its road component due to this instability.

Balancing democracy and diplomacy: India faces a balancing act between engaging with the military junta to protect its strategic and security interests and its commitment to promoting democratic values and human rights in Myanmar.

Rohingya Crisis: India's approach to the Rohingya crisis has drawn criticism, as it seeks to balance humanitarian concerns with security risks and maintain positive relations with both Myanmar and Bangladesh. 

Way Forward for Strengthening India-Myanmar relations?

Engagement with Stakeholders: India should strategically integrate Track II diplomacy with Myanmar's military leadership and opposition groups, while maintaining official engagement.

Strategic investment: Timely completion of connectivity projects for enhancing trade and regional integration.

• Invest in development assistance projects like the Myanmar Institute of Information Technology and Advanced Centre for Agricultural Research and Education, promotes goodwill and present India as an alternative to China.

Security and Defense Cooperation: Enhance cooperation on border security and counter-insurgency operations.

• Strengthening capabilities of Myanmar's defense services through training programs and joint exercises (like IMBAX), along with intelligence sharing.
• India and Myanmar have established a framework for cooperation on maritime security and information exchange, including coordinated patrolling in maritime boundaries.

Expand Economic Engagement: Diversifying Trade beyond traditional sectors like pulses, timber, and pharmaceuticals.

• Operationalization of the Rupee-Kyat Trade Settlement Mechanism for smooth transactions.

Timely Project Completion: India needs to accelerate project completion, by increasing financial and technical assistance to Myanmar.

• Engage with both the military junta and relevant Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) to ensure the safety and security of construction zones and personnel.
• Forming joint project management teams with representatives from both India and Myanmar.

Humanitarian Assistance: India could play an active role in mediating between Myanmar and Bangladesh to facilitate the return of Rohingya refugees and advocate for inclusive governance in Myanmar.

Regulating Free Movement Regime (FMR): Efficient implementation of the newly introduced biometric and QR-coded border pass system at designated crossing points.

• Engage with local communities and tribal leaders to address concerns about the impact of the new regulations on their livelihoods, traditional trade, and cultural ties.

• Continue diplomatic engagements with the Myanmar authorities on border management, security concerns, and cross-border trade.

Navigating China's Influence: Countering China's increasing influence, by offering viable alternatives in strategic projects.

• Engaging with diverse stakeholders, including ethnic groups and the National Unity Government alongside the military, could enhance India's influence and contribute to a more stable Myanmar. 

Conclusion

India must navigate the Myanmar complexities by prioritizing diplomatic engagement, strengthening security cooperation, balancing its interests with its commitment to democracy, and accelerating development projects to ensure a stable and mutually beneficial relationship with Myanmar.  

Source: MONEY CONTROL