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Context

The Emissions Gap Report, published by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), monitors global progress toward the temperature targets outlined in the Paris Agreement

What is Emissions Gap Report? 

It evaluates the disparity between current national pledges, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and the actual reductions required to restrict warming to "well below 2°C," with a preferred goal of remaining below 1.5°C.

Key Findings of the Emissions Gap Report 2025

Warming Trajectory Remains Far Off-Track

Global temperatures are projected to rise by 2.3–2.5°C this century, even if all NDCs are implemented. 

Record-High Emissions

The year 2024 was the hottest ever recorded, marked by extreme weather, record ocean heat, wildfires, and increasing GHG concentrations; Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions hit a record 57.7 GtCO₂e in 2024. 

1.5°C Target Slipping Away

To stay on a 1.5°C pathway, global emissions must drop 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 (relative to 2019). 

For a 2°C pathway, the cuts needed are 28% by 2030 and 37% by 2035—levels far beyond what current pledges deliver.

Slow Progress on New Commitments

As of September 2025, only 60 countries (covering 63% of global emissions) had submitted or announced new NDCs for 2035. Several G20 economies, including India, missed the deadline.

Why Current Climate Pledges Fall Short?

The shortfall stems from both weak targets and poor implementation.

• Insufficient Reductions: To meet 1.5°C, global emissions must fall by 7.5% each year until 2035. 
• Doubtful Net-Zero Promises: While many countries have pledged net-zero targets, the UNEP and IPCC note low confidence in their actual implementation.
• Slow Policy Action: Even where plans exist, execution lags behind, leaving climate impacts to accelerate faster than mitigation efforts.

The Broader Consequences of the Emissions Gap

Every fraction of a degree of warming increases risks of floods, droughts, and heatwaves. 

Between 2010–2020, people in vulnerable regions were 15 times more likely to die from climate-related disasters. (Source: WHO)

Unchecked warming could slash global GDP by 10% by 2050. (Source: WEF)

 Climate impacts undermine progress on poverty reduction, food security, and energy access.

Challenges  

Lack of Climate Finance

Developed countries are missing their target to double 2019 adaptation finance by 2025. Only $26 billion of the required $310 billion per year was delivered in 2023. (Source: UN)

Geopolitical Strains

Global conflicts and economic uncertainty are undermining climate cooperation.

Dependence on Fossil Fuels

Continued subsidies and reliance on fossil fuels slow the global transition to clean energy.

Way Forward

The Emissions Gap Report 2025 highlighted that the world is off course to meet the 1.5°C target, and time is running out. Avoiding irreversible damage will require:

• Stronger NDCs: Especially from major emitters, aligning with 42% cuts by 2030 and 57% by 2035.
• Policy Implementation: Turning promises into measurable action across all sectors.
• Boost in Climate Finance: Developed nations must meet and exceed the $100 billion pledge, scale up adaptation and loss-and-damage funding, and reform global finance systems to support climate goals.
• Accelerated Technology Sharing: Collaboration to ensure developing nations can adopt low-carbon solutions.
• Phased Fossil Fuel Exit: A fair and timely transition away from coal, oil, and gas.

Source: DOWNTOEARTH