A new study warns rising greenhouse gas emissions could cut India’s solar output by 10%, especially in southern, central, and eastern regions, urging developers to address regional climate variability and adopt resilient, hybrid systems to safeguard India’s clean energy mission.
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Picture Courtesy: DOWNTOEARTH
A recent study published in the journal Energy and Climate Change warns that rising greenhouse gas emissions threaten India's solar energy infrastructure.
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Read all about: INDIGENOUS SOLAR MANUFACTURING l ENERGY POLICY WRI INDIA REPORT 2025 |
A greenhouse gas is any gas in the atmosphere that absorbs and emits infrared radiation, trapping heat and warming the planet, known as the "greenhouse effect," is a natural phenomenon that keeps Earth warm enough to support life.
However, human activities have increased the concentration of these gases, which intensifies the greenhouse effect and is the primary driver of climate change.
Increased greenhouse gas emissions drive atmospheric changes that reduce surface solar radiation (SSR), the critical input for solar photovoltaic (PV) systems.
Atmospheric Changes
Higher emissions increase aerosol concentrations and post-monsoonal cloud cover, scattering sunlight and reducing SSR by up to 10% in central, southern, and eastern India under intermediate and high emission scenarios.
Regional Vulnerability
Southern states, contributing 33,674.76 MW (14% of India's solar capacity), face high risks due to cloud variability. Northwestern India remains stable, but meteorological factors like aerosols and extreme weather already widen the gap between installed capacity (37% renewables) and generation (18% electricity).
Long-Term Impact
With PV panels lasting 20-25 years, developers must account for SSR declines to avoid output losses. Historical cycles of "global dimming" (aerosol-driven SSR reduction) and "brightening" (atmospheric recovery) highlight the sensitivity of solar infrastructure to climate variability.
India aims for 500 GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030 (280 GW solar) and Net Zero by 2070. Emission-driven SSR declines jeopardize these targets.
Generation Shortfalls
Despite 123,130 megawatts (MW) installed solar capacity, generation is only 12,100 MW (July 2025), exacerbated by weather variability, undermining energy security and SDG 7 (affordable clean energy).
Investment Uncertainty
High-variability regions like eastern and southern India deter investors due to unreliable returns. Hybrid systems (solar-wind-storage) are recommended but increase costs and complexity.
Emissions to SSR Decline: GHGs increase aerosols and cloud cover, reducing SSR by 0.5-1.32% per decade, impacting solar output.
Fossil Fallback: Lower solar generation necessitates coal/gas backups, increasing emissions and aerosols, further dimming sunlight.
Warming Amplification: Reduced renewable output slows mitigation, intensifying monsoons and extreme weather, disrupting solar sites.
Low-emission scenarios limit SSR loss to 0.5-1%, emphasizing the need for global and national emission cuts.
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Policy Integration: Incorporate SSR projections into Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) guidelines; offer viability gap funding for hybrid systems in high-risk regions.
Technological Advancements: Deploy bifacial panels and AI-driven forecasting for clouds/aerosols; scale storage capacity.
Regional Prioritization: Focus Solar mega-parks in stable northwestern regions; expand climate-resilient designs in southern/eastern states.
Global Cooperation: Leverage ISA for tech transfers; push for emission reductions at upcoming COP 30 to limit high-emission scenarios.
Research Investment: Fund studies on monsoon variability and extreme weather impacts, linking climate models to grid and PV performance.
Rising emissions threaten India's solar infrastructure with up to 10% SSR loss, necessitating climate-resilient planning to safeguard renewable energy goals.
Source: DOWNTOEARTH
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PRACTICE QUESTION Q. Analyze the threats posed by climate change to India's solar energy infrastructure and suggest adaptive strategies. 150 words |
Increased greenhouse gas emissions reduce surface solar radiation, directly impacting the energy output of solar panels.
SSR is the sun's shortwave radiation that reaches the Earth's surface and is crucial for long-term renewable energy planning.
The primary impact is not physical damage but a reduction in the solar radiation reaching the panels, thus lowering their efficiency.
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