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Picture Courtesy: THEHINDU 

Context

The U.S. military action against Venezuela and the capture of its sitting President amounts to a direct violation of international law and reflects the dangers of a collapsed balance of power in a largely unipolar world dominated by the U.S.

What is US Unilateralism?

It refers to a foreign policy doctrine where the United States acts independently, prioritizing its own national interests and sovereign autonomy over international consensus or multilateral cooperation. 

It is the polar opposite of multilateralism, which emphasizes working through alliances and international organizations like the United Nations (UN) or the World Trade Organization (WTO).  

The foundation of modern international law, prohibiting the unilateral use of force by states, is established in the United Nations Charter.

Case Study: U.S. Policy Towards Venezuela

On January 3, 2026, the US conducted a military Operation “Absolute Resolve” in Caracas to capture President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, on charges of "narco-terrorism".  

The U.S. accused the Venezuelan government of sponsoring drug trafficking.  

• Fentanyl Crisis: The primary driver of drug overdose deaths in the U.S. is fentanyl. 
• Precursor chemicals largely originate from China, and the finished product is manufactured by cartels in Mexico before being trafficked across the U.S. border 
• Cocaine Sources: Approximately 90% of the cocaine reaching the U.S. originates from Colombia, with Mexico serving as the primary transit country. 
• Venezuela is not considered a primary source of cocaine entering the U.S., weakening the "narco-terrorism" claim as a basis for existential threat.

Resource-Driven Motives: Critics argue that a key motivation for U.S. pressure is Venezuela's vast natural resources.

• Venezuela holds the world's largest proven crude oil reserves, estimated at over 303 billion barrels (Source: OPEC).
• This suggests that interventions justified on other grounds may be aimed at securing access to or control over these strategic resources.

Shifting Global Balance of Power

The Cold War Era: A Bipolar Check

During the Cold War, the U.S. and the USSR dominated a bipolar world, creating a tense but stable "balance of power" through the fear of mutual escalation, which deterred unilateral military action.

• Neutralization of Force: Competitive mobilization often prevented one side from overwhelming a regional actor. For example, during the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War, Soviet naval presence neutralized the U.S. Seventh Fleet's attempt to pressure India.
• Mutual De-escalation: In the 1973 Yom Kippur War, simultaneous nuclear and conventional mobilization by both powers forced a ceasefire, preventing a total regional collapse or direct superpower conflict.

The Post-Cold War Era: Unipolar Dominance

The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 left the U.S. as the world's sole superpower. This removed the primary check on U.S. power, leading to an increase in military interventions. 

According to a U.S. Congressional Research Service report, the U.S. undertook 251 military interventions between 1991 and 2022, a sharp increase compared to the preceding period.  

This period also saw the rise of doctrines like "pre-emptive war," which challenge the traditional interpretation of self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter. 

The Rise of Counter-Balancing Forces

China as a Long-Term Counter-Balance 

China is increasingly viewed as the only realistic long-term counterweight to U.S. dominance. 

• Strategic Confidence: Beijing has transitioned from anxieties over U.S. pressure to a more assertive posture in 2026, believing it has stabilized its position in the great-power competition.
• Economic & Tech Parity: While still facing domestic structural stresses like property sector decline, China has gained "strategic breathing space" and is narrowing the technological gap with the U.S., particularly in AI and green energy.
• Alternative Order: Through initiatives like the Global Development Initiative and the expansion of BRICS, China is institutionalizing a multipolar framework to bypass Western security norms. 

Russia–China Alignment

The alignment between Moscow and Beijing has intensified as a strategic necessity, though it remains a "tactical" rather than formal military alliance. 

• Functional Resilience: The partnership is bound by "hard structural realities," primarily a shared goal to "de-Westernize" the global order and push back against perceived U.S. hegemony.
• Limits to Durability: Deep-seated mutual mistrust, growing power asymmetry (with Russia becoming a junior partner), and differing visions of a future world order limit the long-term stability of this axis.
• Strategic Disruption: Russia acts as a "strategic disruptor," while China seeks to be a "principal shaper" of new norms. 

India's Path: Strategic Autonomy

Strategic autonomy is crucial for India to prioritize national interests in foreign policy and build comprehensive national power to transition from a balancing power to a leading power in the current geopolitical landscape.

Foreign Policy Implications

Strategic Autonomy and Multi-Alignment: India maintains independent stances on major global conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine crises, while simultaneously engaging in diverse forums like the Quad, BRICS, and SCO.

Voice of the Global South: Following the 2023 G20 presidency, India has cemented its role as a leader for emerging economies, advocating for reforms in the UN Security Council and global financial institutions to reflect 21st-century realities.

Pragmatic Economic Diplomacy: India boosts economic resilience through diversified trade deals (UK, EFTA, Oman) and ensures energy security by continuing Russian oil imports despite Western pressure.

Shift to "Shaper" Role: Diplomacy has moved from "non-alignment" to being a "decider" or "shaper" of global rules, particularly in digital governance and climate equity. 

National Security Implications

Strategic Deterrence against China: India responds through firm border deterrence, infrastructure development along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), and deepening Indo-Pacific partnerships.

Defense Indigenization: India is pursuing Aatmanirbhar Bharat in defense, with the 2025–26 budget allocating ₹6.81 lakh crore to boost indigenous production of platforms like Tejas aircraft and BrahMos missiles.

Technology as Security: National security now includes "digital strategic autonomy," focusing on securing semiconductor supply chains, AI ethics, and data sovereignty via the Digital Personal Data Protection Act.

Managing Regional Volatility: India faces structural instability in neighborhoods (eg.Bangladesh), the Russia-China-Pakistan nexus, requiring constant "managed escalation" strategies and a "Neighbourhood First" approach to maintain regional stability. 

Conclusion

The erosion of a balanced international order leads to power politics overriding international law, weakening multilateralism, which requires India to focus more on self-reliance to maintain strategic autonomy and shape the multipolar world.

Source: THEHINDU