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Context:

NITI Aayog released 11 reports (Feb 2026) presenting India’s first government-led integrated modelling study aligning Viksit Bharat @ 2047 with the Net Zero target by 2070.

Key Highlights of NITI Aayog reports on Scenarios towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero:

Macroeconomic transformation and growth outlook:

Shift in Growth Pattern: India’s development pathway will gradually move from consumption-dominated growth to a more investment-intensive model, driven by infrastructure, manufacturing, and clean energy expansion.

Economic Scale: GDP projected to rise from about USD 4.2 trillion (2025) to nearly USD 30 trillion by 2047.

Energy Import Savings: Although imports of critical minerals will increase, reduced fossil fuel dependence could generate savings of around ₹9 trillion annually by 2070, strengthening macroeconomic stability.

Employment:

Green Jobs Potential: Clean energy and related sectors are expected to generate about 7 million additional jobs by 2050.

Regional Vulnerability: Over 150 districts dependent on coal and fossil-fuel activities may face economic restructuring, requiring reskilling, diversification, and social safety nets.

Climate Risk Exposure: Around 40% of India’s districts face high climate risk, increasing the urgency for resilient livelihoods and infrastructure.

Urbanisation and Infrastructure expansion:

Urban Growth: Urban population share projected to rise from 37% (2023) to 51% by 2047 and 65% by 2070.

Buildings and Cooling Demand: 86% of the building floor space for 2070 is yet to be constructed. Commercial floor space expected to grow 4–7 times.

Transport Demand: Car ownership projected to increase from ~32 per 1,000 people to 200–250 per 1,000 by 2070.

Energy transition under Net Zero:

Electrification as the Core Strategy: Electricity share in final energy demand to rise from 21% (2025) to about 60% by 2070. Key drivers are Electric Vehicles, induction cooking, industrial electrification, and heat pumps.

Power Sector Transformation: Renewable capacity (solar + wind) to expand from about ~164 GW (2025) to over 6,000 GW by 2070. Nuclear power to increase from 8 GW to 300+ GW for reliable baseload supply.

Declining Fossil Fuel Share: Fossil fuels in primary energy mix to fall from 87% (2025) to about 14% (2070). Remaining emissions to be addressed through Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS).

Grid Decarbonisation: Power sector emission intensity expected to approach net-zero by 2070.

Financial Requirements:

Total Investment Need: Around USD 22.7 trillion cumulative investment required by 2070.

Annual Requirement: Approximately USD 500 billion per year, compared to current levels of about USD 135 billion annually.

Financing Gap: Estimated shortfall of USD 6.5 trillion.

Role of International Finance: Share of foreign capital (FDI, concessional finance, climate funds) may need to rise from 17% today to about 42% by 2070.

Critical Minerals and Resource Security

The clean energy transition will shift energy security concerns from fuel supply to mineral availability, with demand for Critical Energy Transition Minerals expected to rise by about 51% compared to current policy pathways. Copper and graphite will account for nearly two-thirds of total demand, while India remains highly import-dependent for lithium, cobalt, and nickel. The major drivers of demand will be EV batteries (about 55%) and solar technologies (around 30%), necessitating domestic exploration, overseas asset acquisition, and greater recycling to promote circularity.

Behavioural change: The transition strategy recognises the importance of moderating demand through Mission LiFE, which promotes sustainable lifestyles such as public transport use, efficient cooling, and resource conservation, thereby reducing the overall cost and resource intensity of the Net Zero pathway.

Land and Social Considerations: Large-scale deployment of renewable energy and infrastructure will require significant land, potentially competing with agriculture and ecological systems, making integrated spatial planning essential. The Net Zero transition is therefore framed as a human-centric development process, aimed at delivering cleaner air, improved health outcomes, climate resilience, and inclusive growth.

Key concerns in achieving Viksit Bharat and Net Zero:

Financing Constraints: Achieving the dual goals of Viksit Bharat by 2047 and Net Zero by 2070 requires an estimated USD 22.7 trillion in cumulative investment, translating to nearly USD 500 billion annually, which is far higher than the current annual investment of about USD 135 billion. Even with strong domestic resource mobilisation, a financing gap of around USD 6.5 trillion remains, making India increasingly dependent on international climate finance, concessional funding, and foreign investment.

Managing Reliability and costs: The transition requires rapid expansion of renewable energy capacity from about 164 GW (2025) to over 6,000 GW by 2070, which poses challenges related to grid stability, energy storage, transmission infrastructure, and integration of variable renewable sources. At the same time, reducing fossil fuel dependence without disrupting energy affordability and energy security remains a critical balancing challenge.

Critical Mineral Dependence: The clean energy transition will significantly increase demand for Critical Energy Transition Minerals, with overall demand expected to rise by about 51%. India currently faces near-total import dependence for key minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel, while global supply chains are geographically concentrated, exposing the country to price volatility and geopolitical risks.

Water – energy - location conflict: A major spatial challenge arises because a large share of India’s renewable energy potential and existing capacity is concentrated in water-stressed states, creating potential trade-offs between energy expansion and water security, especially for solar module cleaning, thermal cooling, and green hydrogen production.

Infrastructure lock-in risk in buildings and cooling: With 86% of the building floor space for 2070 yet to be constructed and air-conditioner ownership expected to increase from about 10% today to over 80%, there is a significant risk of locking in high electricity demand for decades if passive cooling design, energy-efficient construction materials, and super-efficient appliances are not adopted at scale from the outset.

Regional inequality risks: More than 150 districts depend heavily on coal mining and thermal power ecosystems, while fossil-fuel-linked industries currently employ an estimated 17 million workers. The gradual decline of these sectors will create deep regional adjustment pressures, making large-scale reskilling, economic diversification, and social protection essential to ensure a just transition and prevent localised economic distress.

Measures to accelerate India’s transition to Viksit Bharat and Net Zero:

• Accelerating clean energy expansion and electrification: India must rapidly scale up renewable energy capacity and strengthen grid infrastructure to support the projected rise in electricity’s share of final energy demand from about 21% in 2025 to nearly 60% by 2070. This requires faster deployment of solar and wind, expansion of transmission networks such as Green Energy Corridors, investment in battery storage and pumped hydro, and promotion of electrification across transport, cooking, and industry.
• Mainstreaming sustainable behaviour and circular consumption: India must systematically embed Mission LiFE across policies, education, and urban governance to promote resource-efficient lifestyles such as reduced energy use, sustainable mobility, and responsible consumption. Strong enforcement of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR), mandatory recycled-content norms, and product life-cycle standards can reduce dependence on virgin materials and strengthen the circular economy.
• Future ready and energy-efficient buildings: Since nearly 80–86% of India’s 2070 building stock is yet to be constructed, strict enforcement of building energy codes, passive cooling design, and super-efficient appliances is essential to prevent long-term energy lock-in. Policy tools such as energy benchmarking, mandatory performance disclosure, green public procurement, and incentives for low-carbon construction materials can help make Net Zero-ready buildings the standard.
• Enhancing industrial competitiveness in a low-carbon economy: To maintain global competitiveness as climate regulations tighten, India should support early adoption of emerging technologies such as green hydrogen, low-carbon steel and cement, and Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) through blended finance, viability gap funding, and government procurement. At the same time, robust carbon measurement, reporting, and certification systems will be necessary to prepare Indian exports for emerging carbon border adjustment mechanisms.
• Integrated land and water resource planning: Renewable energy and green hydrogen deployment should be guided by spatial planning that minimises ecological and agricultural conflicts. Solutions such as agrivoltaics, floating solar projects, and the use of degraded or mined land can optimise land use, while basin-level planning is essential to manage water requirements for energy and industrial decarbonisation technologies.
• Ensuring a just transition for workers and regions: With more than 150 districts dependent on coal and fossil-fuel ecosystems and millions of workers at risk, targeted transition policies are essential. Financial resources from District Mineral Foundations (DMF), combined with reskilling under the Skill India Mission and improved labour databases such as the e-Shram platform, can help workers shift to emerging green sectors while maintaining income security.
• Scaling up climate finance and financial architecture: Achieving Net Zero requires about USD 500 billion annually, compared to the current investment of roughly USD 135 billion, highlighting a significant financing gap. Establishing a dedicated national green finance institution, developing a unified climate finance taxonomy, expanding green bond markets, and leveraging platforms such as GIFT City can help mobilise domestic and international capital, including sovereign wealth and pension funds.

Conclusion:

The pathway to Viksit Bharat by 2047 and Net Zero by 2070 represents a transformative development opportunity rather than a constraint on growth. As highlighted by NITI Aayog, India’s transition must balance rapid economic expansion with deep structural changes in energy systems, infrastructure, industry, and consumption patterns. Success will depend on sustained investment of nearly USD 500 billion annually, accelerated technological deployment, secure supply chains, and strong Centre - State coordination.

Equally important is ensuring a just and inclusive transition that protects workers, supports vulnerable regions, and integrates adaptation alongside mitigation, especially when nearly 40% of districts face high climate risks. By combining clean energy expansion, resource efficiency, behavioural change through Mission LiFE, and robust institutional and financial frameworks, India can avoid carbon lock-in and enhance long-term competitiveness.

If managed strategically, the Net Zero transition can deliver multiple co-benefits energy security, green jobs, improved public health, and resilient infrastructure enabling India to emerge as a prosperous, sustainable, and globally competitive Viksit economy.

Source: PIB