Indian Economy

INDIA-US INTERIM TRADE DEAL: NAVIGATING TARIFF WARS AND STRATEGIC AUTONOMY

India has shifted from trade defensiveness to a proactive Interim Trade Arrangement with the United States, capping tariffs at 18% to protect key exports like pharmaceuticals and aerospace. Amid WTO decline and protectionism, this reflects Strategic Autonomy 2.0, requiring faster reforms in contract enforcement and logistics upgrades.

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RBI holds repo rate steady: Key highlights and implications

The Reserve Bank of India kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and retained a neutral stance, citing a favourable macroeconomic environment. With inflation projected at 2.1% for FY26 and GDP growth expected at 7.4%, the central bank opted for a cautious pause to allow the impact of earlier rate cuts to transmit fully. The decision ensures stability in borrowing costs and EMIs while preserving policy flexibility to respond to risks such as global uncertainty, crude oil volatility, and potential inflationary pressures.

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MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT YEAR END REVIEW 2025

The Ministry of Labour & Employment's 2025 review highlights a paradigm shift in India's labour landscape. Four new Labour Codes have been operationalized, consolidating 29 laws to simplify compliance, enhance worker welfare, and promote gender justice. To boost job creation, the Pradhan Mantri Viksit Bharat Rozgar Yojana (PMVBRY) was launched with a massive outlay. 

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INDIA'S CONSUMPTION RECOVERY

India’s consumption recovery appears uneven and fragile, as recent improvements have been driven more by lower inflation, tax relief, and credit expansion than by strong wage growth. Rural demand has benefited from easing price pressures, while urban spending remains constrained by modest income growth and rising living costs. Increasing household debt and cautious consumer sentiment further highlight the structural weakness in demand. Sustainable consumption growth will depend on broad-based increases in real wages, better employment opportunities, and stronger household financial stability rather than temporary policy stimulus.

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CENTRAL BANK DIGITAL CURRENCY

Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) is a sovereign digital form of money issued by central banks to complement physical cash and existing digital payment systems. It aims to enhance payment efficiency, financial inclusion, monetary sovereignty, and cross-border transactions while offering a safer alternative to private digital currencies. However, challenges related to cybersecurity, privacy, banking stability, and interoperability necessitate a cautious, phased, and well-regulated implementation supported by strong domestic and international coordination.

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INDIA-EU FREE TRADE AGREEMENT: SIGNIFICANCE, CHALLENGES, WAY FORWARD

India and the EU are moving toward a landmark FTA to expand trade, diversify supply chains, and boost investment. Talks still face hurdles over market access, CBAM, IPR, and data issues. Pragmatic negotiations, use of the Trade and Technology Council, and strong political will are key to a balanced deal.

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ECONOMY GROWS FASTER THAN EXPECTED, BUT WARNINGS REMAIN

India’s GDP growth, driven by public capex and services, masks weak private consumption, rising inequality, and agrarian stagnation. Overreliance on state spending is unsustainable. Inclusive growth needs revived household demand, private investment, labor-intensive sectors, and stronger human capital.

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FOUNDATIONS FOR INDIA’S NEXT GROWTH PHASE

India’s $4.1-trillion economy in 2025, now the world’s fourth largest, runs on Reform Express 2025. Trade pacts like the India–UK CETA, lower compliance burdens, new labour and market laws, and reforms such as the Indian Ports Act and SHANTI Bill aim to de-risk investment and convert reform momentum into sustained high growth.

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REVIVING INDIA'S MANUFASCTURING

The manufacturing sector plays a crucial role in India’s economic development by generating large-scale employment, boosting GDP growth, and driving structural transformation from agriculture to industry. However, its performance has remained below potential, with the sector contributing only about 15–17% of GDP and around 11–12% of total employment. Constraints such as high logistics costs, infrastructure gaps, low R&D spending, skill mismatches, regulatory complexity, and dominance of informal enterprises have slowed progress. Government initiatives including Make in India, Production Linked Incentive schemes, PM Gati Shakti, Atmanirbhar Bharat, and Skill India aim to raise competitiveness, enhance domestic value addition, and integrate India more deeply into global value chains. Overall, manufacturing remains central to India’s growth strategy, but sustained reforms and investment are needed to fully realise its potential.

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MGNREGA TO VB-G RAM G : A PARADIGM SHIFT IN INDIA'S RURAL EMPLOYMENT POLICY

The replacement of MGNREGA with the Viksit Bharat Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission (Gramin) marks a major shift in India’s rural employment policy. While MGNREGA functioned as a universal, demand-driven and rights-based employment guarantee that supported vulnerable rural households, the new framework emphasises fiscal discipline, centralised planning and productivity-linked employment. The transition reflects the government’s intent to reform rural welfare delivery, but it also raises concerns about dilution of the right to work, increased burden on states, and potential exclusion of marginalised communities.

 

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SABKA BIMA SABKI RAKSHA BILL 2025 EXPLAINED

The Sabka Bima, Sabki Raksha Bill, 2025, raises FDI in insurance to 100 percent to boost penetration and capital. It strengthens IRDAI’s powers and eases business norms. Gains include competition and innovation, but data privacy, profit outflows, and pressure on public insurers demand strong regulatory oversight.

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GLOBAL CAPABILITY CENTRES

Global Capability Centres have become a cornerstone of India’s modern growth strategy, evolving from low-cost support units into global hubs for innovation, engineering, and strategic functions. Supported by skilled talent, strong digital infrastructure, and enabling government policies, GCCs contribute significantly to high-value exports, quality employment, and technological advancement. Their expansion is deepening India’s integration into global value chains and reinforcing its position as a leading knowledge and innovation-driven economy.

 

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