HOW US-RUSSIA RELATIONS AFFECT INDIA?: EXPLAINED

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Context

The United States-Russia conflict and associated US sanctions on India over its Russian oil purchases are impacting India through economic penalties, strained diplomatic ties, and pressure on its strategic autonomy.

India-US-Russia Geopolitical Triangle

India maintains a unique position with deep historical ties to Russia while simultaneously deepening its engagement with the United States. The strategic balancing act represents India's foreign policy.

The complex US-Russia relations impacts India's foreign policy, security, and economy. India's primary goal is to maintain its strategic autonomy in increasing international pressures.

Defence Cooperation & Diversification

Historical Reliance on Russia: India has historically relied heavily on Russia for its defense needs. Russia remains India's largest supplier of defense equipment.

• Between 2010 and 2014, Russia accounted for 72% of India's arms imports, though this share decreased to 36% between 2020 and 2024, reflecting India's diversification efforts
• Joint production of critical military hardware like BrahMos cruise missile system, Su-30 MKI jets and T-90 tanks.
• During the Cold War, the Soviet Union provided diplomatic support, notably exerting its veto power at the UN Security Council on issues like Kashmir and Goa, and provided crucial security during the 1971 Indo-Pak War.

Growing US Defence Ties: In recent decades, India has expanded its defense collaboration with the United States.

• India acquired over $24 billion of US military equipment since 2007, including Apache helicopters.
• The US recognizes India as a Major Defense Partner, reinforcing the growing strategic alignment.
• 2023 US-India Defense Cooperation Agreement facilitated technology sharing, signified by GE's jet engine production in India.

Challenge: CAATSA Sanctions: The Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), a US law, penalizes nations for defense transactions with Russia, posing a challenge for India.

• India's $5.4 billion purchase of the S-400 missile defense system from Russia, directly exposes India to potential US secondary sanctions.
• India uses the S-400 missile defense system in military escalations with Pakistan, highlight its continued reliance.

Energy Security & Economic Implications

Russian Oil Imports (Post-Ukraine War): Russia has emerged as India’s largest crude oil supplier following the Ukraine conflict.

• Russia now provides over 35% of India’s crude oil imports, surge in imports directly resulted from discounted Russian crude offerings after Western sanctions on Moscow.
• This strategic procurement saved India an estimated $7-10 billion in 2024 from its oil import bill.
• These discounted imports help stabilize domestic fuel prices and ease pressure on the Indian rupee, directly benefiting the Indian consumer.

US Pressure & Tariffs: The US views India's ongoing energy ties with Russia as against collective efforts to isolate Russia economically following the Ukraine war.

• On July 30, 2025, the US imposed a 25% tariff on all Indian imports, citing India's trade practices, high tariffs, and Russian oil and military hardware purchases
• On August 6, 2025, the US announced an additional 25% tariff, raising the total duty on Indian goods to 50%.
• The increased tariff threatens India's key export sectors, including electronics, pharmaceuticals, gems and jewelry, and textiles, reducing US-bound exports by 40-50%.
• Despite pressure, India insists its oil purchases from Russia to ensure "predictable and affordable energy costs" for its consumers.

Bilateral Trade Imbalance: The United States is India’s largest trading partner. In 2024, bilateral trade in goods and services reached $212.3 billion, with $46 billion trade deficit for the US, this imbalance fuels US protectionist policies.

• India trade deficit with Russia, $57.18 billion in 2023-24, primarily due to increasing Russian oil imports. Challenges arise in rupee-rouble trade mechanisms as Russia accumulates a surplus of Indian rupees.

Geopolitical Alignment & Multilateralism

Multipolar Worldview: India advocates for a multipolar international order, for strategic autonomy and a flexible foreign policy that avoids strict bloc alignment.       

• India makes independent decisions based on its national interests, cultivating partnerships with diverse global players to maximize benefits and preserve its strategic independence.
• This differs with Cold War-era non-alignment, evolving into a more dynamic multi-alignment approach.

Collaboration with Russia: Both share common ground in advocating for a multipolar world, to counterbalance to US dominance. Russia supports India's bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

• Both nations collaborate within multilateral platforms, including BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and the G20, share vision for a global order based on international law.

Engagement with US & West: India strengthens its engagement with the US and other Western nations.

• Initiatives like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), involving India, the US, Australia, and Japan, promote a free and open Indo-Pacific and balance China's growing influence.
• The European Union is India's second-largest trading partner, with €120 billion in 2024.
• India and the UK signed a Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) in July 2025, with an goal to double bilateral trade to $120 billion by 2030.

Navigating the complex geopolitical landscape

Deepen Indigenous Defense Production: India must accelerate its "Make in India" and "Atmanirbhar Bharat" initiatives to encourage indigenous defense manufacturing.

• This strategy aims to reduce dependence on external suppliers, including Russia, and enhance self-sufficiency in critical defense technologies.

Diversify Energy Sources: Discounted Russian oil offers immediate economic benefits, however, India needs to diversify its energy import basket beyond Russia and the Middle East, for long term strategic benefit.

• Explore new and mixed energy sources will maintain India's energy security and mitigate risks associated with geopolitical pressures and supply chain disruptions.

Strengthen Global Economic Partnerships: To counter the impact of tariffs and trade disputes, particularly from the US, India must finalize new Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with key partners globally.

• Expedited negotiations with the EU, ASEAN, and countries in Africa and Latin America, expanding export markets and building economic resilience.

Dynamic Diplomacy: India must maintain robust diplomatic channels (both Track l and Track ll diplomacy) and engage in strategic dialogue with both the US and Russia.

• Transparent communication over energy security needs, can help manage misunderstandings, de-escalate trade tensions, and safeguard India's national interests on the global stage.
• Proactive diplomacy is essential for India to maintain its multifaceted relationships and uphold its strategic autonomy in a multipolar world.

Source:  INDIAN EXPRESS