The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034 projects that by 2034, 27% of global cereal production will be used for biofuels, up from 23% in 2023. India, Brazil, and Indonesia drive biofuel demand growth at 0.9% annually. Cereal production will grow by 1.1% yearly. For UPSC GS III.
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The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) jointly release the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034 report.
Declining Direct Human Consumption => By 2034, only 40% of the world’s cereal production will be eaten directly by humans.
Rising Biofuel and Industrial Use => 27% will go towards producing biofuel and other industrial use.
Animal Feed => Remaining 33%
Global biofuel demand will increase, with an expected average growth rate of 0.9% per year through 2034.
Leading Countries => India, Brazil, and Indonesia, due to rising energy demands.
Despite concerns about sustainability, the biofuel industry continues to depend heavily on food-based feedstocks (crops like corn, sugarcane, or palm oil).
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Cellulosic feedstocks (e.g., crop residues, dedicated energy crops, woody biomass) offer alternatives that do not compete with food. However, the report states these advanced feedstocks will not experience a significant increase in their share of total biofuel production. |
Global cereal production to grow by 1.1% annually over the next decade.
Most of the growth will come from a 0.9% increase in yields, indicating improved agricultural efficiency.
India and Southeast Asia Lead => To contribute 39% of global cereal consumption growth by 2034, indicate rising populations and economic development.
China's Declining Share => Drops to 13% from 32%, in the previous decade, reflecting shifts in its consumption patterns and more diversified diets as its economy developed.
Income-Driven Dietary Shifts => Global demand for animal-source foods rises, particularly in middle-income nations. As incomes grow, people consume more protein.
Increased Production => Total agricultural and fish production to increase by 14% by 2034.
Increased Greenhouse Gas Emissions => Expansion of animal herds and croplands is expected to raise direct agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 6%.
Declining Carbon Intensity of on-farm emissions (emissions per unit of output) is projected to decline over the same period, indicating efficiency improvements in farming practices.
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India’s National Policy on Biofuels Categorization of Biofuels:
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Specialized agency of the United Nations.
Leads international efforts to defeat hunger and improve nutrition and food security.
Its Latin motto, fiat panis, translates to "let there be bread".
Founded on 16 October 1945, observed as World Food Day.
195 members, including 194 countries and the European Union.
Headquarters is in Rome, Italy.
Intergovernmental organisation with 38 member countries.
Founded in 1961 to support economic progress and world trade.
The majority of members are developed economies, strong social security systems, and high Human Development Index.
Headquarters are at the Château de la Muette in Paris, France.
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FAQ Q. How will global cereal production be consumed by 2034, according to the OECD-FAO report? By 2034, 40% will be for direct human consumption, 27% for biofuel/industrial uses, and 33% for animal feed. Q. Which countries are expected to lead the increase in global biofuel demand? India, Brazil, and Indonesia are projected to lead the acceleration in global biofuel demand. Q. What is the main reason for the increasing global demand for animal-based food? Income growth in middle-income nations is shifting dietary preferences towards higher protein intake, driving demand for animal-source foods. |
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Source: DOWN TO EARTH
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PRACTICE QUESTION Q. Analyze the socio-economic and environmental implications of large-scale land diversion for biofuel cultivation. 150 words |
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