US exit from Afghanistan

GS PAPER II: Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

Context: President Biden announced withdrawal of all US troops from Afghanistan by September 11.

There are about 2,500-3,500 US troops in Afghanistan at present, plus a NATO force of under 8,000. A co-ordinated withdrawal is expected to begin soon.
The impact of this announcement on various actors within Afghanistan and outside is bound to be far-reaching.

Afghanistan: advantage Taliban

Biden’s announcement has removed all incentives for the Taliban to agree for a dialogue with the Afghan government.
After the full withdrawal of troops, Taliban are likely to see the war, which they believe they have already won, to its completion.
Taliban are confident of victory in the battlefield, and the Afghan government will struggle to hold them at bay.
Afghanistan government “respected US decision and will work with our US partners to ensure a smooth transition”.
There is deep apprehension of a return to the 1990s, although there is also a view that the Taliban too have changed over 25 years, and would not want to alienate the international community as they did when they ruled Afghanistan during 1996-01.

Pakistan: gains, concerns

This is a moment of both vindication and concern in Islamabad.
The Taliban are a creation of the Pakistani security establishment.
After the US invasion of Afghanistan, they removed themselves to safe havens in Pakistan territory, and the Taliban High Council operated from Quetta in Balochistan.
It was Pakistan that persuaded the Taliban to do a deal with the Trump Administration.
But US withdrawal also means Pakistan will need to shoulder the entire burden of the chaos that experts predict.
Civil war is not ruled out and with it, the flow of refugees into Pakistan once again, even as the country struggles with refugees from the first Afghan war.
All this at a time when the economy is flailing, and Pakistan stays afloat on an IMF loan with strict conditionalities.

India: time to be wary

New Delhi, would be nervous about the US withdrawal.
India was on the outer edges of the Trump drive to exit Afghanistan that culminated in the Doha Accord, and was a reluctant supporter of the “intra-Afghan talks” between the Taliban and Afghan government.
When the Biden Administration came in, India was hopeful of a US reset.
The Blinken proposal gave India a role, by recognising it as a regional stakeholder, but this proposal seems to have no future.
The Haqqani group, fostered by the ISI, would have a large role in any Taliban regime.
Another concern would be India-focused militants such as Laskhar- e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohamed, which the Indian security establishment already believes to have relocated in large numbers to Afghanistan.

Russia, China & Iran

China would have much to lose from instability in Afghanistan as this could have an impact on the China Pakistan Economic Corridor.
A Taliban regime in Afghanistan might end up stirring unrest in the Xinjiang Autonomous region, home to the Uighur minority.
Conversely, as an ally of Pakistan, it could see a bigger role for itself in Afghanistan.
The US exit is for Russia a full circle after its own defeat at the hands of US-backed Mujahideen and exit from Afghanistan three decades ago.
In recent years, Russia has taken on the role of peacemaker in Afghanistan.
But both the Taliban and the Afghan government have been wary of its efforts.
After a conference in March of Russia, US, China and Pakistan, along with Taliban and Afghan delegates, a joint statement by the four principals said they did not support the establishment of an Islamic Emirate, leaving the Taliban angry.
Russia’s growing links with Pakistan could translate into a post-US role for Moscow in Afghanistan.
As a country that shares borders with Pakistan and Afghanistan, Iran perceives active security threats from both.
And a Taliban regime in Kabul would only increase this threat perception.

Daily News Analysis