PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN CONFLICT: IMPACT ON INDIA

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Picture Courtesy:  THEHINDU

Context

Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan are fracturing over the Durand Line, affecting regional stability. 

What is Durand Line?

The Durand Line is the 2,611-kilometre international border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

Historical Origin

• Established: It was drawn in 1893 during the "Great Game" between the British and Russian Empires to create a buffer zone.
• Signatories: The agreement was signed by Sir Mortimer Durand, a British diplomat, and Amir Abdur Rahman Khan, the ruler of Afghanistan.
• Purpose: It aimed to define the spheres of influence between British India and Afghanistan. 

The Dispute

The line is one of the most contested and dangerous borders in the world. 

• Pakistan's Position: As the successor state to British India, Pakistan considers the Durand Line its legitimate international border.
• Afghanistan's Position: No Afghan government, including the current Taliban administration, has ever formally recognised it. They argue it was a colonial imposition that bisects ethnic Pashtun and Baloch homelands, dividing families and tribes.
• Fencing: Since 2017, Pakistan has fenced nearly 98% of the border to curb militancy and smuggling, a move strongly opposed by Afghanistan. 

Current Status

Tensions escalated into an "open war" in late February 2026 after cross-border airstrikes and retaliatory ground operations.

Why Has the Pakistan-Taliban Relationship Deteriorated?

The deterioration of the relationship between Pakistan and the Taliban—once considered close strategic allies—is driven by a breakdown in security cooperation and mutual trust. 

Resurgence of the TTP (Pakistani Taliban)

• Safe Havens: Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of providing safe haven to the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), allowing them to launch deadly cross-border attacks.
• Rising Violence: Since the Taliban's return to power in 2021, insurgent violence in Pakistan has surged, with 2025 recorded as the deadliest year in a decade.
• Ideological Bond: The Afghan Taliban is reluctant to curb the TTP due to shared ethnic (Pashtun) and ideological ties. 

Direct Military Hostilities (2026)

• Airstrikes on Cities: In February 2026, Pakistan launched airstrikes targeting Kabul and Kandahar, the Taliban's political and spiritual centers.
• Taliban Counter-Operations: The Afghan Taliban responded with large-scale retaliatory operations.

Mass Deportation of Afghan Refugees 

Pakistan has used the deportation of Afghan nationals as a tool of economic and political coercion. 

• Repatriation Plan: Since late 2023, Pakistan has forcibly deported over one million Afghans, including those with legal documentation.
• Security Justification: Islamabad justifies these expulsions by labeling refugees as a security risk and accusing them of involvement in terrorism, a claim the Taliban calls "unacceptable". 

The "India Factor" and Strategic Distrust

Pakistan's long-standing goal of "strategic depth" in Afghanistan has collapsed as the Taliban asserts its independence. 

• India-Taliban Ties: Islamabad is deeply wary of the Taliban's growing diplomatic and economic engagement with India.
• Diplomatic Slights: Tensions flared when Taliban officials signed statements with New Delhi regarding disputed territories like Jammu and Kashmir, drawing ire from Pakistan. 

Territorial Disputes 

The Durand Line remains an unrecognised border by the Taliban. 

• Border Fencing: Attempts by Pakistan to fence the border and build outposts are frequently met with violent resistance from Taliban fighters who view the line as a colonial-era "imaginary" boundary. 

What are the Broader Implications of this Conflict?

Implications for India

The evolving situation presents both challenges and opportunities for New Delhi.

• Risks:
• An unstable Afghanistan can become a safe haven for transnational terror groups like Al-Qaeda and IS-KP, which threaten Indian interests.
• Increased instability complicates India’s "Connect Central Asia" policy and investments.
• Opportunities:
• The failure of Pakistan's "strategic depth" policy weakens its ability to use Afghanistan as a base against India.
• The Pak-Taliban rift creates a diplomatic opening for India to engage with Kabul directly, focusing on humanitarian aid, trade, and leveraging assets like the Chabahar port to bypass and counter Pakistani influence.

Regional Impact

The conflict fuels broader regional instability, raises the risk of a new refugee crisis, and creates a power vacuum that other actors, such as China, may seek to fill. 

It also jeopardizes key connectivity projects like the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline.

Conclusion

The shift from a patron-client bond to a hostile rivalry between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban over the TTP issue has fundamentally altered regional security, exposed the failure of Pakistan's 'strategic depth' policy, and created new opportunities for India and other regional players.

Source: THEHINDU