New START Treaty Expiry: Impact on India & World

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Context

The New START treaty between the US and Russia has expired, ending the last nuclear arms control agreement and raising concern of an unregulated nuclear arms race.

What is the New START Treaty?

The New START treaty, signed in 2010 and effective in 2011, is a key element of global strategic stability that limited the nuclear arsenals of the two largest nuclear powers.

Core Mandates: The treaty established clear, verifiable limits on the number of deployed strategic nuclear weapons.

• Deployed Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Capped at 1,550 for each country.
• Deployed Delivery Vehicles (Missiles and Bombers): Capped at 700 for each country.

Verification Regime: It created a comprehensive system of on-site inspections, data exchanges, and notifications, ensuring transparency and mutual confidence.

Current Status: Russia suspended its participation in the treaty's verification mechanisms in 2023, citing geopolitical tensions, and the treaty's expiration now removes all legal constraints on their arsenals.

Why the Treaty's Expiry Threatens Global Security?

Removal of All Limits

Both the US and Russia are now legally free to expand their nuclear arsenals without any restrictions. This could trigger a rapid increase in the number of 'deployed' (ready-to-fire) warheads.  

Loss of Transparency

The loss of the treaty’s verification regime and mutual monitoring increases opacity and unpredictability, thus raising the risk of miscalculation during a crisis.

Erosion of Trust and Dialogue

Arms control treaties provide essential channels for communication; their absence deepens mistrust and makes crisis management more difficult.

Violation of the NPT Spirit

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) mandates that nuclear-weapon states pursue disarmament. The potential lapse of the New START treaty is viewed as a violation of the NPT, increasing the risk of nuclear proliferation.

The 'China Factor': A New Strategic Reality

China's emergence as a major nuclear power transformed arms control from a bilateral to a trilateral challenge.

• US Position: The United States argued that any future arms control treaty must include China to be effective in the current geopolitical environment.
• China's Stance: Beijing has rejected joining such talks, arguing that its arsenal is smaller (around 600) than those of the US and Russia.  
• Strategic Outcome: The pursuit of a comprehensive trilateral deal resulted in the loss of the only existing bilateral treaty that provided stability and constraints.

Impact on India’s Strategic Interests

Fueling a Regional Arms Race

If the US expands its nuclear forces to counter both Russia and China, then China will also accelerate its own nuclear modernization. 

A more powerful Chinese arsenal directly threatens India, forcing New Delhi to reconsider its doctrine of 'Credible Minimum Deterrence' and expand its own capabilities. 

• This, in turn, could trigger a reaction from Pakistan, creating a dangerous security dilemma in South Asia.

Straining Strategic Autonomy

The growing rift between the US-led West and the Russia-China axis puts pressure on India's policy of multi-alignment. 

India maintains strategic partnerships with both sides (e.g., Quad with the US, defence ties with Russia) and will face increasing pressure to align with one bloc, challenging its independent foreign policy.

Undermining Global Disarmament Efforts

India has historically been an advocate of universal, non-discriminatory disarmament, as reflected in initiatives like the Rajiv Gandhi Action Plan (1988). 

The failure of the world's leading nuclear powers to uphold their commitments weakens the global non-proliferation regime and undermines India's long-standing position.

Way Forward 

Prioritize Risk Reduction: In the absence of formal treaties, the immediate focus must be on crisis communication and transparency measures to prevent accidental escalation.

Establish a Multilateral Framework: Future arms control efforts must move beyond a bilateral US-Russia focus. 

• A new dialogue involving all P5 nations (US, Russia, China, UK, France) is essential to discuss strategic stability, covering emerging threats like hypersonic missiles and AI in nuclear systems.

India's Potential Role: As a responsible nuclear power, India can leverage platforms like the G20 and the UN Conference on Disarmament to advocate for risk-reduction measures, such as a global 'No First Use' (NFU) agreement.

Conclusion

The end of the New START treaty has created a 'nuclear anarchy,' necessitating a shift from numerical arms limits to a new paradigm centered on transparency, crisis communication, and strategic risk reduction to prevent a nuclear conflict. 

Source: THEGUARDIAN