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PICTURE COURTESY:  INDIAN EXPRESS

Context

The US warns the Taliban of repercussions if they do not return Afghanistan’s Bagram Air Base. The US military abandons the base in July 2021 before its full withdrawal, creating a notable power vacuum in the region.

About Bagram Air Base

Location and Connectivity

Geographic Position: Bagram is Afghanistan's largest military base, located in the strategic Parwan province, north of the capital, Kabul.

Strategic Gateway: Parwan province acts as a crucial nerve center for Afghanistan's connectivity.

• The Salang Tunnel passes through it, linking Kabul to northern cities like Mazar-e-Sharif.
• Highways from Parwan connect Kabul to southern hubs like Ghazni and Kandahar and the central region of Bamiyan.
• Control over Bagram effectively means control over the major transportation routes of Afghanistan.

Historical Evolution

Soviet Origins: The base was constructed by the Soviet Union in the 1950s and served as a primary operational hub during the Soviet-Afghan War (1979-1989).

US Command Center: Following the US-led invasion in 2001, Bagram was transformed into the nerve center for American and NATO forces. For two decades, it functioned as a fortress, coordinating logistics, airpower, intelligence, and counter-terrorism operations.

Strategic Significance of Bagram

A Foothold in the Heart of Asia

Its location offers a unique vantage point over Central Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East. Any power controlling Bagram can project military and intelligence influence across the region.

Proximity to Strategic Rivals

The base's location is a concern for China. It is relatively close to sensitive Chinese sites:

• The Lop Nur nuclear test site in Xinjiang province.
• The Koko Nur nuclear weapons facility in Qinghai province.

For the US, the base was an invaluable asset for Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) activities targeting China and Russia.

Hub for Counter-Terrorism

Bagram was the epicenter of the "War on Terror," used to launch operations against Al-Qaeda and the Taliban.

Today, with the rise of groups like Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-K), the absence of a base like Bagram complicates international counter-terrorism efforts in the region.

Post-US Withdrawal Scenario  

The Power Vacuum

The Taliban now controls the base, but lacks the technology and resources to operate it at its full potential. This has opened the door for other regional powers to exert influence.

China's Growing Role

For Beijing, a neutral or friendly Afghanistan without a US military presence on its border is a strategic win. There are concerns that China may seek some form of access or influence over Afghan assets like Bagram to secure its own interests, including the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Russia and Central Asian Republics

Russia is concerned about instability and the spread of radicalism from Afghanistan into its sphere of influence in Central Asia. It seeks to ensure the Taliban contains terrorist groups.

Implications for India

Increased Security Threats

The absence of a US/NATO presence makes it harder to monitor and counter terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), which have historically used Afghan soil for training and shelter.

Concerns over Chinese Encirclement

Any potential Chinese access to Bagram would be a major strategic setback for India. It would give China a military foothold in the heart of South Asia, amplifying India's concerns about its "String of Pearls" strategy of encirclement.

Loss of Strategic Leverage

During the US presence, India had a degree of political and operational leverage in Afghanistan. The current situation forces New Delhi to recalibrate its Afghan policy, primarily focusing on humanitarian aid and diplomatic engagement with the Taliban.

Impact on Connectivity

India's investments in connectivity projects, like the Chabahar Port in Iran (as a gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia), face uncertainty due to the unstable security situation.

Conclusion

Bagram Air Base is not merely a piece of military real estate; it is a symbol of strategic influence in one of the world's most critical geopolitical crossroads. Its control, or lack thereof, by global powers dictates the security architecture of Central and South Asia.  

SOURCE:  INDIAN EXPRESS