India’s foreign policy in Modi 3.0

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Context: What could the foreign policy of the Narendra Modi government in its third term look like.

 Details

Neighbour Country

• Leaders of seven countries in India’s neighbourhood — Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius, and Seychelles — attended the swearing-in of the new government.
• Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Myanmar were not invited.

Pakistan

2014 Swearing-In and Initial Engagement

•  For his 2014 swearing-in, Modi invited leaders of SAARC countries, including Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan.
• Initial engagement with Pakistan saw ups and downs in 2014 and 2015.

Impact of Terrorist Attacks

• Relations were severely impacted by the terrorist attacks in Pathankot and Uri in 2016.
• 2019 Pulwama Attack and Balakot Strikes
• In 2019, the Pulwama attack and subsequent Balakot strikes fuelled nationalist sentiment in India.
• These events contributed to the BJP’s victory but further damaged ties with Pakistan.

Constitutional Changes in J&K

• Constitutional changes in Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019 led to a downgrading of diplomatic relations between India and Pakistan.

Current Situation in Pakistan

• The situation in Pakistan has changed, with Imran Khan in prison and the Sharifs back in power.

India's Stance on Security

• Prime Minister Modi has emphasized that “security” is India’s priority.
• India maintains the stance that “terror and talks can’t go together.”

Afghanistan

• There is no diplomatic relationship with Kabul since the Taliban captured power in August 2021.
• There is low-level engagement through a technical team assigned to help in humanitarian aid, but high-level engagement has been ruled out for now. A working relationship is likely to continue.

Myanmar

• The challenge has been to engage with the junta government preoccupied with internal armed resistance.
• Myanmarese government forces have been on the defensive since October 2023.
• Some Indian strategic circles suggest engaging with opposition groups given the possibility of the government’s collapse.

Maldives

• The visit of President Mohamed Muizzu, who came to power on an “India Out” plank, was significant.
• After India replaced military personnel manning Indian air assets in Maldives with trained technical personnel as requested by Muizzu's government, India and Maldives appear ready to engage.

Bangladesh

• Campaign rhetoric about “infiltrators” has often soured ties with Banladesh.
• Greater restraint from the government during Modi 3.0 is likely to be beneficial, as both sides share common goals in countering extremism, radicalisation, and terrorism.

Bhutan

• India is ready to support Thimphu with assistance in its five-year plan, a financial stimulus package, and the Gelephu mindfulness city project.
• This support is expected to continue, especially as China negotiates the border with Bhutan on its own terms. India wants Bhutan on its side in this geopolitical struggle.

Nepal

• Ties with Nepal present a delicate challenge due to China’s strong political influence.
• The government in Kathmandu, where former Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli is a key player, uses the Beijing card against New Delhi.
• India needs to work hard to regain the trust of the Nepali people after the economic blockade of 2015.

Sri Lanka

• India’s goodwill from helping Sri Lanka during its financial crisis was jeopardised by raising the Katchatheevu issue ahead of Tamil Nadu elections.
• Strengthening the Sri Lankan economy with financial assistance and investments will be crucial ahead of their elections later this year.

Seychelles and Mauritius

• India’s plans to upgrade ports infrastructure in these countries are part of its maritime diplomacy and security efforts.
• Some success has been achieved in Mauritius’ Agalega Islands, but developing Assumption Island in Seychelles remains challenging.

The Western Countries

Engagement Approach

• The Modi government’s engagement with the West has been more transactional, developing strong strategic ties with the US, Europe, Japan, and Australia.
• Despite criticism from Western media and sometimes even governments, India maintains its stance against what it perceives as “Western interference.”

US Relations

• The Indian relationship with the US has bipartisan support and is expected to remain strong regardless of the outcome of the November presidential elections.
• Defence and cutting-edge tech will continue to drive ties forward.

European Relations

• Economic and political ties with European countries, such as France and Germany, have improved.
• The UK is keen to conclude a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with India, and both India and the EU are also eager to conclude an FTA.

Canada Relations

• Political ties with Canada have been strained due to allegations of India’s involvement in the murder of a Khalistani separatist. However, economic ties and student flows to Canada remain unaffected.

The China Challenge

• The border standoff is about to enter its fifth year, with India maintaining that relations cannot normalize until the border situation is resolved.
• High-level engagements, such as Modi’s meeting with President Xi Jinping in Kazakhstan, may hold potential for progress.

Tightrope on Russia

• India’s ties with Russia are being tested by the war in Ukraine. Defence needs and cheaper oil are central to India’s relationship with Russia.
•  While India will likely skip the highest level of the June 15-16 peace conference in Switzerland, it will emphasize dialogue and diplomacy at an official level.

High Stakes in West Asia

• Modi 1.0 and 2.0 built strong ties with countries in West Asia, focusing on energy security, investments, and the Indian diaspora.
• The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), I2U2, and the International North South Transit Corridor (INSTC) are considered game changers, but the Israel-Hamas conflict introduces uncertainty.

 Conclusion

India faces a complex and multifaceted diplomatic landscape under Modi 3.0. With nuanced challenges ranging from strained relationships with Pakistan and Afghanistan to evolving dynamics in West Asia, India must navigate these waters with a strategic and sensitive approach. Balancing national security priorities, fostering regional stability, and engaging effectively with Western powers will be crucial. Maintaining robust ties with global and regional partners while addressing internal and external criticisms will define India's diplomatic success in the coming years.

 Sources:

Indian Express