Iran’s militarisation of the strait is aimed at exercising strategic leverage and at generating funds to rebuild damaged infrastructure. With a peace deal, the need for leverage would disappear.

Why In News?

Despite the apparent failure of recent US-Iran talks held in Islamabad, high-level delegations from both sides indicate that substantial progress has been made and a comprehensive peace deal remains within reach.

Three Crucial Issues

• Iran’s Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) and Nuclear Future: Iran currently possesses around 400 kg of HEU enriched to 60%, enough to potentially produce 10-12 nuclear bombs if further enriched.
• Reopening and Securing the Strait of Hormuz: Iran has militarised the strait to exert leverage and generate funds for rebuilding war-damaged infrastructure.
• Israel’s War in Lebanon and Hezbollah’s Role: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently offered direct peace talks conditional on Hezbollah’s disarmament

Why These Issues Can Be Resolved

• On HEU: Iran could hand over its stockpile in exchange for the lifting of all US nuclear-related sanctions and American assistance in rebuilding its electricity generation capacity.
• On the Strait of Hormuz: With a peace deal in place, Iran would no longer need militarisation for leverage or revenue.
• On Lebanon: Iran and the US could jointly commit in the peace agreement to press their respective allies to enter negotiations within a specified timeframe.

Implications for Regional and Global Stability

• Energy Security: Secure and unimpeded flow through the Strait of Hormuz would stabilise global oil prices and benefit major importers like India, China, Japan, and South Korea.
• Nuclear Non-Proliferation: Removing Iran’s HEU stockpile would significantly reduce proliferation risks in West Asia.
• Broader De-escalation: Resolution in Lebanon could pave the way for wider regional stability, reducing proxy conflicts.
• Global Economy: It would mitigate downside risks highlighted in the recent IMF World Economic Outlook, supporting growth in emerging markets.

Way Forward

• Prioritise verifiable HEU handover coupled with sanctions relief and reconstruction aid, supported by robust inspection mechanisms.
• Replace toll-based proposals for the Hormuz Strait with sanctions relief and asset unfreezing to ensure freedom of navigation under UNCLOS principles.
• Include binding commitments for Iran-US-facilitated talks between Israel and Hezbollah within a defined timeline.
• Engage multilateral stakeholders (including European powers and regional actors) to broaden support and provide guarantees.

Conclusion

The ongoing West Asian crisis, marked by US-Iran tensions, presents enormous risks but also a narrow window for resolution. The three crucial issues are complex yet solvable through pragmatic trade-offs.

Source: Indian Express