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Context

• In the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis, India has taken a subtle pro-Moscow position on the question of Russian attacks against Ukraine.

India’s stance

• India’s problem is China, and it needs both the U.S./the West and Russia to deal with the “China problem”.
• There is an emerging dualism in contemporary Indian strategic Weltanschauung:
  • the predicament of a continental space that is reeling under immense pressure from China, Pakistan and Taliban-led Afghanistan adding to its strategic claustrophobia; and,
  • the emergence of a maritime sphere which presents an opportunity to break out of the same.
• India needs Moscow’s assistance to manage its continental difficulties (Afghan-Pak-China).
• In the Indo-Pacific region, India needs its American and western partners to keep a check on China.

China factor

• China sees the Ukraine war as an opportunity to construct an anti-American world order by forging some regional unity.
• The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, its current focus on Russia and Ukraine, the further weakening of Russia, and Beijing’s proactive outreach to the region with money and muscle will eventually lead to the end of Indian primacy in the region and the rise of a China-centric Asian geopolitical order.
• The longer the war lasts, the closer China and Russia could become, which certainly does not help India.
• The more severe the S.-Russia rivalry becomes, the less focus there would be on the Indo-Pacific and China, which is where India’s interests lie.

Way forward

• India will need to keep in mind its long-term objectives even during the delicate balancing that it is doing today.
• Ideally, in the longer run, India would like to have both the West and Russia on its side. But given how this war is unfolding and how Beijing is making its moves, India may indeed find it harder than ever to manage the growing contradictions between the West and Russia.
• Geopolitical choices are rarely black and white, nor are they always readily available. Sometimes, therefore, states must proactively try to shape the environment to generate new options.

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