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Context

• The development and intensification of a cyclonic storm named "Biporjoy" in the east-central and southeast Arabian Sea.

Details

Formation and Intensification:

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reports the development of cyclonic storm "Biporjoy" over the east-central and southeast Arabian Sea.
• The system intensified rapidly from a depression to a deep depression and further to a cyclonic storm on June 6, 2023.

Movement and Expected Intensity:

• In the last six hours, the deep depression moved northwards at a speed of 4 kmph.
• The cyclonic storm is forecasted to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm within the next 24 hours.
• The IMD predicts very severe cyclonic conditions with a wind speed of 115-125 kmph and gusts of 140 kmph on June 8.
• The severe cyclonic storm is expected to persist until June 11, with wind speeds estimated at 135-145 kmph and gusts of 160 kmph.

Potential Landfall and Uncertainty:

• Different weather forecast models provide contrasting predictions for the cyclone's track.
• The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model suggests the system might move towards the Sindh province of Pakistan.
• The Global Forecast System (GFS) model indicates the possibility of landfall in Oman.
• The system's track and landfall location are still uncertain, and further monitoring is required to make accurate predictions.

Impact on Pakistan and Oman:

• The cyclonic storm is currently located 1,420 km south of Karachi, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).
• PMD states that no coastal areas of Pakistan are currently under threat, and the situation is being monitored.
• Oman has experienced numerous landfall events with tropical cyclones in the past, resulting in extreme winds, storm surges, and flash floods.

Climate Change Connection:

• Rising sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea, influenced by climate change, contribute to the formation of intense cyclones.
• Sea surface temperatures of 30-32 degrees Celsius, above the climatological mean, are favorable for cyclone development.
• The cyclonic system may delay the arrival and progress of the southwest monsoon in India due to moisture diversion.

Impact on Monsoon and Climate Patterns:

• The cyclonic system hinders monsoon winds and moisture flow, potentially causing a delay in the onset and progression of the southwest monsoon in India.
• Long-term Indian Ocean warming and the development of El Nino could weaken the monsoon, affecting the overall climate patterns in the region.

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/biporjoy-cyclonic-storm-develops-over-arabian-sea-could-make-landfall-in-pakistan-or-oman-89858

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