Pahalgam terror attack: Indus treaty with Pakistan put on hold

Syllabus: GS Paper 2 International Relations and GS Paper 3 Border Management.

Context:

Following a terror strike in Pahalgam that claimed 26 deaths, the Indian Prime Minister held a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) in New Delhi on April 23, 2025. This conference produced some important choices meant to handle the matter and answered Pakistan's engagement in cross-border terrorism.

Reasons for Pakistan's Terrorist Attack in Kashmir

With Washington's withdrawal from Kabul in 2021, Pakistan's strategic influence with the US has essentially evaporated. Pakistan is facing a serious economic crisis and has not received financial aid from the United States as it has in the past.
Gulf nations are tired of bailing out Pakistan on a regular basis. There is a feeling that Islamabad has provided little in return.
Despite Pakistan's persistent economic woes, Gulf governments have declined to provide financial aid.
China has made significant investments in Pakistan's infrastructure through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, many initiatives are blocked due to corruption and inefficiency.
The death of Chinese engineers by Baloch terrorists has strained bilateral relations. Despite being Pakistan's major backer, Beijing is growing impatient.
The Taliban administration in Kabul has not developed into the client state that Pakistan had hoped for. Instead, it has become hostile, posing new security threats.
There have been frequent attacks on civilians and military personnel along the Afghan border. Afghanistan, which is now dominated by the Taliban, has become a security liability rather than an asset.
Tensions with Iran have risen when a Baloch group killed eight Pakistani migrants in Iran's Sistan-Baluchestan province. Over the last year, both Iran and Pakistan have launched missile strikes against claimed terrorist hideouts across their shared border.
Some commentators believe Pakistan's border with India is now the most calm. This contrasts sharply with the dangerous western frontiers of Afghanistan and Iran.
The terror assault in Pahalgam can be interpreted as Pakistan's frantic attempt to reaffirm its regional importance.
It aims to counter the rising feeling in India that "Pakistan does not matter". By means of such projects, Islamabad aims to debunk the illusion of successful marginalisation of it.
Recent comments by Chief General Asim Munir of Pakistan Army help to clarify the strategic mindset behind such actions. Referring often to the "two-nation theory," General Munir suggested a return to ideological justification for Pakistan's actions against India.

What is the Two-Nation Theory?

The two-nation theory is a religious nationalist concept that had a tremendous impact on the Indian subcontinent when it gained independence from the British Empire.The idea to partition British India into two states was announced on June 3, 1947. These two states would be India and Pakistan.According to this argument, Indian Muslims and Indian Hindus are two distinct countries, each with their own customs, religion, and traditions; thus, from a social and moral standpoint, Muslims should be entitled to have their own separate state outside of Hindu-dominated India.Muhammad Ali Jinnah pioneered the notion that religion is the key factor in forging Indian Muslim national identity.

5-Point Action Plan Announced by India After Pahalgam Terror Attack

India has responded to the Pahalgam Terror Attack with a thorough 5-point action plan, therefore indicating a change in its strategic orientation. The main elements are those listed below:

Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)

India has suspended the 1960 IWT, which governs the use of the Indus River waters shared between India and Pakistan.
This decision is contingent on Pakistan ceasing its support for cross-border terrorism.
Hydrological leverage is now being used as a pressure tool, reflecting a change in India’s diplomatic strategy.

Closure of Attari-Wagah Border Check Post

The Integrated Check Post (ICP) at Attari, located in Punjab, has been 6]losed, halting the movement of people and goods.
Individuals with valid documents are allowed to return by 1st May 2025.

Cancellation of SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES)

India has revoked the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme for Pakistan, rendering all previously issued visas invalid.
This move targets Pakistan’s nationals and further isolates the country in regional cooperation efforts.

Expulsion of Pakistani Military Advisors

Pakistan’s Defence, Naval, and Air advisors in New Delhi have been declared persona non grata and ordered to leave India.
India will also withdraw its own advisors from Islamabad.

Reduction of Diplomatic Personnel

India will reduce the number of staff at its High Commission in Islamabad from 55 to 30 by 1st May 2025.
This reduction signifies a diplomatic downgrade aimed at halting official bilateral dialogue.

What is the Indus Waters Treaty?

India and Pakistan share six rivers: Ravi, Beas, Sutlej, Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum.
India and Pakistan share the basin primarily, with China and Afghanistan accounting for a tiny portion.
The Indus Waters Treaty was signed in 1960, following nine years of discussions between India and Pakistan with the assistance of the World Bank, which is also a signatory.
The Treaty allocated water from the three eastern rivers — Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas — to India for exclusive usage, with an average of 33 million acre feet (MAF).
Water from western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) totalling roughly 135 MAF were allotted to Pakistan, except specific residential, non-consumptive, and agricultural uses permitted by India under the Treaty.
The Treaty also establishes various methods for dealing with difficulties that may arise: "questions" are addressed by the Commission, "differences" are decided by a Neutral Expert, and "disputes" are sent to a seven-member arbitral tribunal known as the "Court of Arbitration."
The World Bank has a limited and procedural role as a Treaty signatory.
The Treaty establishes the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC), which has a commissioner from each country, as a vehicle for bilateral collaboration and information exchange about river utilisation.
The two commissioners must meet at least once a year, alternating between India and Pakistan.

Significance and Implications of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)

Overview of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) was signed in 1960 after nine years of negotiations between India and Pakistan, with the World Bank acting as a mediator.
The Treaty governs the distribution of water from the Indus River System, comprising six rivers: Ravi, Beas, Sutlej, Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.
The Treaty allocates the Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) to India, and the Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) to Pakistan. This allocation gives Pakistan 80% of the total water, while India receives limited rights to use the Western Rivers for specific purposes.

Permanent Indus Commission (PIC)

To maintain dialogue and cooperation, the IWT established the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC), ensuring regular engagement between both countries.
The dispute resolution mechanism consists of three levels: direct dialogue at the PIC, through a Neutral Expert (appointed by the World Bank or jointly by both governments), or in extreme cases, through a Court of Arbitration.

India’s Actions under the IWT

India sent its first notice under the IWT in 2023 looking for changes concerning two hydropower projects: Ratle and Kishenganga. These run-of-the-river initiatives, meant to create electricity without interfering with the natural flow, were categorised as such.
Pakistan expressed worries stating the projects were against the terms of the deal. Citing Article XII (3), which permits changes via a signed agreement between the two governments, India sent a second notification for a review and revision of the Treaty in 2024.

Suspension of the IWT by India

Since the IWT's founding in 1960, India's suspension of it in recent years signifies a momentous milestone. This change suggests a possible realignment of water diplomacy under impact of continuous cross-border conflicts and terrorism.
Under Article 62 of the Vienna Convention, India's suspension shows that a basic change in conditions would make the continuation of the Treaty unacceptable.

Indus Water Treaty Suspension Consequences

The 1960 India-Pakistan Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) has underpinned regional water diplomacy. However, India's suspension of the treaty after the Pahalgam terror assault has huge water security and regional relations ramifications for both states.

Impact on Pakistan

Water Dependency: Pakistan relies heavily on the Indus River system, with nearly 80% of its water flow coming from these rivers. This water is crucial for agriculture, irrigation, and drinking needs in major regions like Punjab and Sindh.
Urban Water Supply: The major cities of Karachi, Lahore, and Multan are directly dependent on the Indus River system for their daily water supply.
Agricultural Economy: The agricultural sector accounts for a quarter of Pakistan's gross domestic product (GDP), while irrigation uses nearly all of the country's water (93%). The treaty's suspension endangers food security due to decreased agricultural productivity and increased food shortages.
Existing Water Crisis: Groundwater loss, soil salinity, and inadequate water storage capacity are all contributing factors to Pakistan's current water problem. Only 10% of the yearly water supply can be stored in reservoirs such as Tarbela and Mangla.
Economic Strain: Areas reliant on agriculture will see a worsening of their economic conditions and a general worsening of their standard of living as a result of water supply interruptions.

Impact on India

Increased Control Over Western Rivers: India gains greater control over the western rivers—Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus—allowing it more flexibility in water usage and hydropower generation.
Hydropower Generation: India can enhance its hydroelectric power production without the restrictions imposed by the treaty’s design and operational constraints.
Flood Control and Water Storage: India gains the ability to carry out flood control measures and manage reservoirs on the western rivers, especially on the Jhelum.
Reduced Sharing of Data: India may stop sharing flood data with Pakistan, affecting Pakistan's preparedness during the monsoon season.
Limited Immediate Impact: The immediate impact of the suspension will be limited because India lacks the capacity to entirely block or divert river flows, despite these rights.

India’s Long-Term Strategy Toward Pakistan: Way Forward

Strengthening Deterrence

Military Presence: It is imperative that India keep a robust military presence along the border, which should include the installation of high-tech surveillance systems and intelligent fence.
Credible Deterrence: Ensuring that Pakistan does not escalate tensions, particularly with regard to Kashmir and military incursions, can be accomplished by the implementation of a strong deterrent, notably in the form of increased border security.

Diplomatic Measures

United Nations Security Council: India should continue to bring attention to Pakistan’s support for terrorist organizations at the UN Security Council, rallying global condemnation.
Financial Action Task Force (FATF): India should advocate for Pakistan’s inclusion in the FATF blacklist, pressuring Pakistan through sanctions for its role in terror financing.
Article 51 of the UN Charter: By leveraging this, India can mobilize global support for collective actions against terrorism.

Internal Resilience and Social Cohesion

Counter-Radicalisation Strategy: With the goal of preventing radicalisation through the implementation of security measures and public awareness programs that promote pluralism and national unity, a focus should be placed on border regions that have populations who are vulnerable.

Government Measures and Way Forward

Diplomatic Pressure: Suspension of key agreements like the Indus Waters Treaty, closing the Attari-Wagah border, and expelling Pakistani advisors.
Security Enhancements: Increased security measures in Jammu and Kashmir, including manhunts for terrorist suspects.
Future Measures: Strengthen intelligence networks, enhance surveillance systems, and intensify international diplomatic pressure to isolate Pakistan.

Conclusion

The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and India's increasing global prominence indicate a change in regional strategy. To prevent additional instability, the situation highlights the need of cautious diplomatic engagement.

Practice Questions:

Analyse the consequences of India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty. What implications does this have for India's and Pakistan's strategic interests?