INDIA-BANGLADESH RELATIONS AT CROSSROADS: CHALLENGES & WAY FORWARD

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Picture Courtesy:  THE HINDU

Context

India-Bangladesh relations are evolving from historical ties established during the 1971 liberation war to a more intricate partnership that is central to India's 'Neighbourhood First' and 'Act East' policies.

 Strategic Importance of Bangladesh for India

Security of the Northeast (Siliguri Corridor)

• Alternative to "Chicken's Neck": India's connectivity to its eight northeastern states relies on the Siliguri Corridor, a narrow 22 km stretch of land. 
• Bangladesh offers a vital bypass, providing shorter transit routes through its territory that reduce travel time from 31 hours to approximately 10 hours.
• Counter-Insurgency: Bangladesh's cooperation has been critical in dismantling safe havens for anti-India insurgent groups (like ULFA) operating along the 4,096 km shared border.
• Border Management: As India's longest land border, stability in Bangladesh is essential to control illegal migration, cattle smuggling, and human trafficking. 

Geostrategy & Maritime Security

• Gateway to Southeast Asia: Bangladesh is the central pillar of India's Act East Policy, serving as a natural bridge between South Asia and ASEAN countries.
• Bay of Bengal Influence: Bangladesh’s coastal location allows it to monitor critical sea lines of communication (SLOCs) and energy transit routes. Its cooperation is vital to countering the Chinese "String of Pearls" strategy.

Economic & Energy Integration

• Largest Regional Partner: Bangladesh is India's largest trading partner in South Asia, with bilateral trade reaching approximately $13.51 billion in FY25.
• India exporting approximately $11.46 billion and importing around $2.05 billion, resulting in a large trade surplus for India.
• Energy Security: India exports roughly 1,160 MW of power to Bangladesh and operates the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline for high-speed diesel.
• Development Partner: Bangladesh is India’s largest development partner, receiving nearly $8 billion in Lines of Credit (LoC) for infrastructure, including the Akhaura-Agartala rail link. (Source: MEA)

Emerging Strategic Risks  

• China Factor: Increased Chinese investment in Bangladeshi infrastructure (including airbases near the Siliguri Corridor) and its role as a top defense supplier pose a strategic challenge to India.
• Regional Stability: Post-2024 political change, India must recalibrate its "Neighbourhood First" policy due to a more complex regional landscape and increased anti-India sentiment influenced by Pakistan and China.

Contemporary Challenges 

The China Factor

China is a key development and strategic partner for Bangladesh, challenging India's traditional influence. Bangladesh practices strategic hedging, balancing ties with both Asian powers for maximum national benefit.

• Economic Influence: China is Bangladesh's largest trading partner and a major source of investment in infrastructure, including ports, bridges (Padma Bridge Rail Link), and power plants under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
• India's Response: India competes by offering transparent, sustainable, and demand-driven projects. However, project implementation delays often weaken India's comparative advantage. 
• India's approach focuses on strengthening regional frameworks like BIMSTEC to provide an alternative platform for cooperation.

Unresolved Bilateral Issues

• Teesta Water Sharing: The unsigned Teesta water-sharing agreement is a major irritant, politically sensitive in Bangladesh, fueling anti-India sentiment. The dispute persists due to internal Indian disagreements, especially with West Bengal.
• Border Killings: Although official numbers have decreased, incidents of killings along the border by Indian security forces continue to dominate media narratives in Bangladesh, eroding goodwill.
• Rohingya Refugee Crisis: While India has provided humanitarian aid (Operation Insaniyat) and supports the safe repatriation of refugees, Bangladesh expects a more proactive role from New Delhi in pressuring Myanmar.

Internal Dynamics in Bangladesh

• Domestic Politics: Anti-India rhetoric is used for political mobilization, framing India as an overbearing neighbour.
• Changing Aspirations: The youth demographic is more focused on economic opportunities and national dignity rather than historical ties like the 1971 war.

Way Forward for India

To revitalize the relationship, India must shift its approach from being history-centric to future-oriented, focusing on delivery, mutual respect, and shared prosperity.

Focus on Timely Delivery: Credibility is built on executing projects efficiently. India must accelerate the implementation of its Lines of Credit and connectivity projects to demonstrate tangible benefits.

Resolve the Teesta Issue: Creative diplomatic solutions involving cooperative federalism are needed. This requires aligning the interests of the central government with those of West Bengal to reach a mutually acceptable agreement.

Strengthen People-to-People Connect: Enhance youth, cultural, and academic exchanges to build a broader base of support for the relationship and counter misinformation.

Embrace Bangladesh's Autonomy: India should view Bangladesh's engagement with other powers like China through a pragmatic lens, avoiding a zero-sum game. Compete on the merits of quality, transparency, and shared values.

Strengthen Regional Platforms: Promote cooperation under frameworks like BIMSTEC, which positions India as a facilitator of regional public goods in areas like disaster management, maritime security, and energy connectivity.

Conclusion

The India-Bangladesh partnership is critical but faces challenges from geopolitical competition, Bangladesh's rising aspirations, and unresolved disputes. Success requires strategic patience, economic credibility, and treating Bangladesh as a sovereign partner to ensure a stable and prosperous Bay of Bengal region, which is essential for India's 'Neighbourhood First' and 'Act East' policies.

Source: THE HINDU