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Source: The Hindu

Context

The recent US-Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear sites, followed by a shaky ceasefire, demonstrated that today's global alliances, which are frequently compared to Cold War blocs, are not as strong or united as they appear.

Backdrop of the Conflict

• Following Israel and Iran's escalation, which included US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, a ceasefire was declared.
• The incident calls into question the idea that the world is divided into Cold War-style blocs, as key partners such as Russia and China did not intervene militarily to support Iran.
• Iran is experiencing significant political and military setbacks, raising questions about the depth and reliability of its strategic alliances.

What are the new global power blocs?

New global power blocs are emerging alliances between countries such as China, Russia, and Iran that seek to challenge the dominance of the Western-led global order.  These blocs, such as BRICS and SCO, prioritize economic cooperation, strategic alignment, and institutional alternatives over formal military treaties like NATO.

What is the 'Axis of Upheaval'?

• The term was coined to describe a perceived counter-West alliance between Russia, China, and Iran.
• These collaborations are not governed by formal military treaties, making collective defense actions unlikely.
• Shared goals include de-dollarizing the global economy.
• Alternatives to SWIFT (Global Payment System).
• Groups such as the BRICS and SCO are becoming stronger.
• Promoting multi-polar global governance.

How the Israel-Iran Conflict Weakens the Idea of New Global Power Blocs

Lack of Military Support

• Iran’s close ties with Russia and China did not translate into military backing during the Israel-Iran conflict.
  
  
• Russia, preoccupied with the Ukraine war, offered only diplomatic mediation.
  
  
• China confined itself to verbal condemnation without any military commitment.
  
  

Absence of Binding Alliances

• The so-called ‘Axis of Upheaval’ (Iran, Russia, China) lacks formal military treaties.
  
  
• Iran’s partnerships with Russia (2025) and China (2021) are strategic and economic, not military.
  
  
• No collective defense mechanisms exist similar to NATO-style pacts.
  
  

Diverging Strategic Interests

• Russia and China are leveraging the conflict to advance their own geopolitical goals.
  
  
• U.S. involvement in West Asia benefits them by potentially diverting American focus from the Indo-Pacific and Europe.
  
  
• This reflects strategic divergence, not unity among these powers.

Role of Major Powers

Russia’s Calculations

• Heavily involved in Ukraine, limiting its ability to act elsewhere.
  
  
• Shows diplomatic support for Iran, e.g., criticizing Israel at the IAEA, but no military aid.
  
  

China’s Position

• Maintains a rhetorical stance supporting Iran (e.g., condemning Israeli actions).
  
  
• Focuses on economic cooperation, particularly energy security and cheap oil imports.
  
  

No Formal Military Treaties

• No binding pacts between Iran, Russia, and China.
  
  
• Cooperation is confined to multilateral forums like the SCO and financial alternatives (e.g., non-dollar systems).

Where does Iran stand diplomatically and militarily following the recent conflict?

• Diplomatic isolation and limited support: Despite strategic alliances with Russia and China, Iran received only verbal and symbolic support, with no concrete military or institutional assistance.
• Its regional alliances remained inactive, indicating a disconnect between rhetoric and action.
• Military Weakness and Proxy Setback: Iran lost leadership and capacity, while its key proxies, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, were unable to respond effectively.
• This has weakened Iran's position as a regional power and highlighted its reliance on nonstate actors.

Way Forward

• Formalize Strategic Partnerships: In order to foster trust and operational coordination, Iran, Russia, and China should work to institutionalize their relationships through defense cooperation frameworks, joint military exercises, and security dialogues.
• Align Long-term Strategic Interests: The three countries must create a shared geopolitical vision that extends beyond transactional ties, ensuring mutual support mechanisms during crises while balancing individual regional priorities.

Practice Question Q. How will I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE and USA) grouping transform India’s position in global politics?