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Source: France 24

Context

Recently, Israel bombed Iran's state television building. This action was claimed to be a response to Iran's nuclear threat.

Background of Israel-Iran Strike 2025

• Israel launched airstrikes and drone attacks on Iran's nuclear and military sites, including Tehran, the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, a nuclear research center, two military bases in Tabriz, and an underground missile storage site in Kermanshah, as part of "Operation Rising Lion" to prevent Iran from developing an atomic weapon. 
• In retaliation, Iran launched waves of ballistic missiles at Israel under "Operation True Promise 3," resulting in explosions over Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.

What are the reasons for the Iran-Israel conflict in 2025? 

• Historical Roots: Iran's relationship with Israel has been marked by deep hostility since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, which transformed Iran from a close ally of Israel under the Shah to an openly anti-Jewish Islamic Republic. 
• Religious and Ideological Divide: Iran, governed by Shia Islamic principles, and Israel, a predominantly Jewish state, have sharp religious and ideological differences.  
• These fundamental disparities have fueled mutual distrust and animosity for decades. 
• Iran's Support for Anti-Israel Groups: Iran has been a staunch supporter of Palestinian causes, including Hamas and Hezbollah, which Israel considers terrorist organizations.  
• The rivalry is played out through proxy conflicts, with Iran supporting forces such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Shia militias in Iraq, all of which Israel considers direct threats to its security. 
• Iran's vocal calls for Israel's destruction have exacerbated tensions. 
• Geopolitical Rivalry: Iran and Israel compete for regional dominance, with opposing interests in conflicts such as the Syrian civil war and the Yemen crisis.  
• Iran has supported the Assad regime in Syria and the Houthi rebels in Yemen, while Israel works to counter Iranian influence in these regions. 
• Iran's Nuclear Ambitions: Israel regards Iran's nuclear program as a serious threat, fearing the development of nuclear weapons that could jeopardize its survival.  
• Israel has been a vocal critic of the Iran nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), taking both overt and covert actions to halt Iran's nuclear progress.

Nuclear War Age

Era	Key Features
First Nuclear Age (1945–1991)	- Defined by Cold War and Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) logic - US–USSR rivalry with ~70,000 warheads - MAD maintained peace through fear - NPT, New START aimed at arms control - New START limits: 1,550 deployed warheads each - Ends in 2026, no successor treaty yet
Second Nuclear Age (Post–Cold War)	- Marked by “Global Zero” movement - Obama’s nuclear-free world vision (Nobel Peace Prize, 2009) - NPT extended in perpetuity - NPT Article 6 on disarmament remained unfulfilled - Major powers expanded arsenals instead - India–Pakistan nuclear tests (1998) - US modernization ($1.5–2 trillion) - 2017 Nuclear Ban Treaty unsupported by Nuclear Weapon States
Third Nuclear Age (Ongoing)	- Return of nuclear strategy in unstable global order - China’s expansion: ~600+ warheads - Russia’s nuclear threats during Ukraine War - UK & France modernizing deterrents; UK investing £15 billion - Tactical nukes gaining strategic relevance - Russia deploys tactical nukes to Belarus - Lowered threshold for use, no longer last resort - Nukes seen as status quo–changing tools - Deterrence norms eroding, moral restraint declining - Escalatory doctrines hinted by leaders - Multipolar nuclear dynamics emerging - US retreat, China & Russia assertive - India–Pakistan risks now openly acknowledged

Iran’s Proxy Warfare Strategy

• Iran has established a network of armed non-state actors to extend regional influence without direct confrontation.
  
  
• Key proxies include:
  
  
• Hamas in Palestine
  
  
• Hezbollah in Lebanon
  
  
• Houthis in Yemen
  
  
• Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq
  
  
• This proxy model allows Iran to:
  
  
• Minimize its risks and costs in conflicts
  
  
• Maintain plausible deniability while backing anti-Israel actions
  
  
• Tie down Israeli military across multiple fronts
  
  
• These proxies enable Iran to engage in indirect warfare, projecting power without open conflict.

Strategic Impact of Iran’s Proxy Network

• Iran’s influence now extends to the Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea, and northern Arabian Sea.
  
  
• This has helped Iran strengthen its geopolitical position without provoking full-scale retaliation—until recent escalations.
  
  
• The Axis of Resistance, supported by Iran, has created a multi-front challenge for Israel.

Israel’s Ongoing Dilemma with Proxies

• Despite frequent military strikes, Israel has failed to neutralize Iran-backed groups.
  
  
• Hamas remains active in Gaza.
  
  
• Hezbollah continues to threaten from Lebanon.
  
  
• Houthis withstand attacks, including on Sanaa airport.
  
  
• Most proxies, except Hamas, are heavily reliant on Iranian weapons and training.

Shift in Israeli Military Strategy

• Israel now recognizes that targeting individual proxies is insufficient for long-term security.
  
  
• Focus is shifting to directly confronting Iran, the core enabler of regional threats.
  
  
• Although earlier 2024 clashes didn’t shift the strategic balance, they showed regional support for Israel’s stance against Iran.
  
  

Implications of the Iran-Israel Conflict on India

Hampering India’s Energy Security

• India imports ~2 million barrels of oil daily via the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  
• Any instability in this region may cause supply shortages, rising energy prices, and inflation.
  
  
• Volatile oil prices can strain India’s fiscal balance, slow GDP growth, and trigger a shift in investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold and bonds.
  
  
• This may result in negative impacts on stock markets (Sensex and Nifty).
  
  

Impact on the Indian Diaspora

• Over 66% of 1.34 crore NRIs reside in the Middle East, particularly in the Persian Gulf region.
  
  
• Escalating tensions pose safety risks to this large diaspora.
  
  
• India may be required to conduct mass evacuations, as seen during the 1990-91 Gulf War, Libya crisis, and Ukraine conflict.
  
  

Disruption to Strategic Connectivity

• India’s investment in the Chabahar Port in Iran, a key link to Afghanistan and Central Asia, could face setbacks.
  
  
• The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) might see delays and disruptions due to the regional conflict.
  
  
• Shipping disruptions in the Red Sea could lead to increased shipping costs and affect global trade routes.
  
  

Diplomatic Tightrope for India

• India enjoys strong ties with Israel in defence and technology, but also values its relations with Iran and Gulf nations.
  
  
• Escalating tensions force India into a delicate balancing act, with pressure to take sides, risking long-standing diplomacy.
  
  

Possible Solutions to De-escalate the Conflict

Two-State Solution

• A ceasefire in Gaza, humanitarian aid, and adherence to UN resolutions supporting a two-state solution are critical.
  
  
• This ensures Israeli security while granting Palestinian statehood.
  
  

Dialogue and Diplomacy

• Direct talks between Iran and Israel, with neutral mediators (EU/UN), can foster trust-building and negotiations.
  
  

Tackling Nuclear Proliferation

• Iran should recommit to the JCPOA, allowing international inspections.
  
  
• Israel could acknowledge peaceful nuclear rights and refrain from strikes.
  
  

Strengthening Regional Cooperation

• Promote joint participation in forums like the Arab League or GCC to tackle shared regional challenges.
  
  

Steps Towards Normalisation

• Encourage exchange of ambassadors, reopening embassies, and people-to-people ties following the Israel-UAE model.
  
  

Practice Question Q. As a 'third nuclear age' emerges, global norms regarding nuclear deterrence, disarmament, and non-proliferation appear to be shifting in tandem with rising geopolitical tensions and military modernization. Explain.