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Source: New York Times

Context

Russia has officially proclaimed its departure from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, claiming that Western missile deployments now pose a direct threat to national security.

About the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty

• The INF Treaty was a landmark arms control agreement signed in 1987.
  
  
• It was concluded between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War era.
  
  
• The treaty played a crucial role in reducing nuclear tensions and enhancing global strategic stability.
  

Key Provisions of the INF Treaty

Scope and Coverage

• Targeted ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles.
  
  
• Applicable to missile systems with a range between 500 km to 5,500 km.
  

Disarmament Commitment

• Both countries agreed to:
  
  
• Eliminate existing stockpiles of such missiles.
  
  
• Complete the process within a 3-year timeframe from the treaty’s entry into force.
  

Permanent Restrictions

• A complete and permanent ban was placed on:
  
  
• The development
  
  
• Production, and
  
  
• Deployment of intermediate-range missile systems.
  

Verification and Transparency

• The treaty introduced extensive on-site inspections by both parties.
  
  
• Marked a significant advancement in arms control verification mechanisms.
  
  
• Aimed at building mutual trust and transparency in nuclear disarmament efforts.

Implementation of the INF Treaty

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Source: Arms Control Association

United States' Compliance

• The United States destroyed a total of 846 missiles as part of its commitment under the INF Treaty. 
• This included the elimination of Pershing II missiles and Ground-Launched Cruise Missiles (GLCMs), which were considered critical components of the U.S. intermediate-range missile arsenal at the time.

Soviet Union's Compliance

• The Soviet Union undertook the destruction of 1,846 missiles, significantly more than the United States. The missile systems dismantled included SS-4, SS-5, and SS-20 intermediate-range ballistic missiles. 
• In addition to missile elimination, the Soviet Union also dismantled the associated support infrastructure, demonstrating broader compliance with the treaty's provisions.

Significance of the INF Treaty

Curbing the Arms Race

• Played a crucial role in reducing tensions during the Cold War.
  
  
• Marked a shift from arms build-up to arms reduction between superpowers.
  

First of Its Kind

• Historical Milestone: First major agreement where both the U.S. and U.S.S.R. agreed to eliminate an entire category of nuclear weapons.
  
  
• Precedent Setting: Established a framework for future arms control agreements like START and New START treaties.

Why Did Russia Exit the Treaty?

• Perceived Security Threats from the US:
  
  
• Deployment of Tomahawk missile launchers in the Philippines.
  
  
• Stationing of Dark Eagle hypersonic missiles in Australia.
  
  
• Presence of Typhon missile systems and participation in Talisman Sabre exercises.
  
  
• Escalating Military Presence by the US:
  
  
• 2025 deployment of US nuclear submarines further worsened tensions.
  
  
• Rising NATO military activity perceived as provocative by Russia.
  
  
• Russia’s Justification:
  
  
• Claimed that the treaty’s original security conditions no longer exist.
  
  
• Asserted that US missile deployments pose a direct threat to national security.
  
  
• Previous Withdrawals by Russia:
  
  
• New START Treaty – exited in 2023.
  
  
• Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) – suspended participation in 2023.
  

Implications of Russia’s Exit from the Treaty

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Source: United Nations

Arms Race Risks

• Unconstrained Missile Development:
  
  
• Allows the deployment of intermediate-range missiles in Europe and Asia.
  
  
• Removes previous restrictions on land-based missile systems.
  

Erosion of Strategic Trust

• Breakdown of Dialogue:
  
  
• Weakens channels of communication between major nuclear powers.
  
  
• Reduces transparency and verification mechanisms critical for arms control.
  

Fragile Future of Remaining Treaties

• Only New START Remains:
  
  
• Currently the last active arms control treaty, expiring in 2026.
  
  
• Its uncertain future may mark the complete collapse of arms control architecture.
  

Global Security Implications

Revival of Cold War-Era Tensions

• Return to Cold War Politics:
  
  
• Fear of a renewed European missile crisis.
  
  
• Increased adversarial posturing between NATO and Russia.
  

Breakdown of Arms Control Framework

• Eroding Global Trust:
  
  
• Hampers efforts towards future nuclear disarmament.
  
  
• Arms control diplomacy becomes less credible.
  

Acceleration of Nuclear Modernization

• Among Major Powers:
  
  
• Push to upgrade and develop more advanced nuclear weapons systems.
  
  
• Among Non-Nuclear States:
  
  
• Rethinking non-proliferation commitments due to perceived global insecurity.
  

Heightened Risk of Miscalculation

• Reduced Response Time:
  
  
• Fast-deploying missiles increase the risk of accidental or false-launch scenarios.
  
  
• There is a possibility that a global conflict could be triggered by a misunderstood or misjudged threat.

Important Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaties

Major Nuclear Arms Control Treaties

Source: Newsonair