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Source: The Hindu

Context

India is currently negotiating complicated global geopolitical shifts, which present enormous challenges and opportunities. The country's connections with major countries such as the United States, the European Union, and China play an important role in developing its global policy and responses.

Operation Sindoor

India’s Security Challenge

• Operation Sindoor highlighted India’s difficulty in gaining global support against cross-border terrorism.
  
  
• Despite strong evidence linking Pakistan-based groups, including Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), the international response was muted.
  

The Pahalgam Attack

• On April 22, 2025, a terror attack in Pahalgam resulted in India eliminating three LeT operatives.
  
  
• These operatives were linked to Pakistan, exposing the role of UN-sanctioned terrorists being sheltered across the border.
  

Diplomatic Hurdles

• Many of India’s strategic partners hesitated to directly blame Pakistan, showing lack of collective global pressure.
  
  
• The United States, under President Donald Trump, added complexity by:
  
  
• Claiming credit for brokering a ceasefire using economic leverage.
  
  
• Presenting a conflicting narrative with India’s official account.
  
  
• Welcoming Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir post-operation, which confused diplomatic signals.
  

Partial International Support

• The U.S. designated The Resistance Front (TRF), the group behind the Pahalgam attack, as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO).
  
  
• The UN Security Council Monitoring Team also confirmed TRF’s role, but this still fell short of a strong global consensus on India’s security concerns.

India’s Role in Multilateral Institutions and Global Governance Reform

• India advocates for multilateralism based on equity and inclusion, especially post-COVID and amid rising global polarisation.
  
  
• Persistent demand for UNSC reforms to reflect emerging powers like India, Brazil, South Africa (G4 grouping).
  
  
• As a G20 member and former G20 Presidency (2023), India has shaped the global agenda on digital public infrastructure, climate finance, and Global South cooperation.
  
  
• Key contributions to WTO reforms, peacekeeping operations, and UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
  
  
• Supports reinvigoration of NAM and South-South cooperation to provide a non-aligned, multipolar voice in global affairs.

Internal Determinants of India’s Foreign Policy

• Economic priorities like trade expansion, energy security, and technology access heavily shape foreign alignments (e.g., FTA with UAE, trade talks with EU).
  
  
• Public opinion and nationalism influence assertiveness on issues like border disputes, terrorism, and diaspora protection.
  
  
• India’s demographic profile, scientific base, and digital infrastructure give it leverage in tech and climate diplomacy.
  
  
• Domestic political continuity enables long-term foreign policy initiatives (e.g., Act East, Indo-Pacific vision, connectivity corridors).
  
  
• States’ growing role in economic diplomacy (e.g., Tamil Nadu–Singapore, Gujarat–Japan) is shaping a more decentralized foreign policy approach.
  

Challenges from the United States (US) 

Shifting Narratives on Terrorism

• During Operation Sindoor, many strategic partners, including the US, did not explicitly condemn Pakistan for sheltering UN-sanctioned terrorist groups linked to the Pahalgam attack.
  
  
• While India responded decisively against terror camps, US President Donald Trump claimed he brokered a ceasefire by using trade as leverage, which weakened India’s diplomatic narrative.
  
  
• Trump further invited Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir for lunch after the operation, raising questions about US commitment.
  
  
• Despite these actions, the US designated The Resistance Front (TRF) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and the UN Security Council named TRF in connection to the attack.
  

Economic Pressure and Policy Unpredictability

• The US displays erratic policy behaviour. On the day of the NISAR satellite launch, a joint US-India project, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on India.
  
  
• Trump politicised trade issues, threatening India over its purchase of Russian oil, even though the US imports Russian uranium, palladium, fertilisers, and chemicals.
  
  
• His “America First” approach pressured US companies to invest and hire only within the US, affecting Indian economic interests.
  

Lopsided Global Engagements

• The US has allowed Nvidia to sell H20 AI chips to China, ignoring earlier national security concerns.
  
  
• Despite ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and West Asia, the US has reduced its East Asia focus, allowing China more geopolitical space, indirectly limiting India’s strategic influence.
  

Trust Deficit in South Asia

• The US has revived relations with Pakistan, praising its counter-terrorism efforts, ignoring India’s security concerns.
  
  
• In Bangladesh, the US supported groups opposing Sheikh Hasina, unfavourable to Indian interests.
  
  
• In Myanmar, Western support for anti-military forces destabilises India’s North-East.
  
  
• Incidents like Galwan and Pahalgam further show poor US-India coordination on regional security.

Challenges from the European Union (EU)

Targeting India’s Energy Security

• The EU is targeting India’s import-dependent energy security, especially during the sensitive phase of India-EU Broad-based Trade and Investment Agreement negotiations.
  
  
• The Vadinar Refinery in Gujarat, with a large stake owned by Russian company Rosneft, has been sanctioned by the EU.
  
  
• This action could severely affect India’s access to affordable Russian oil, increasing pressure on global oil prices and India’s energy costs.
  
  
• Meanwhile, EU countries like Hungary, Slovakia, Belgium, and Spain continue importing Russian oil and LNG, using exemptions or pre-existing contracts.
  
  
• Notably, Europe itself receives 51% of Russia’s LNG exports, highlighting a double standard in their approach.
  

Trade and Digital Barriers

• The EU has imposed a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) or carbon border tax, which acts as a non-tariff barrier against Indian exports.
  
  
• Other digital and trade restrictions from the EU also hinder India’s trade prospects.
  
  
• However, India is optimistic that the recently concluded India-U.K. Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) will pressure the EU to soften its stance in the ongoing negotiations.
  

China’s Assertive Neighbourhood Diplomacy

• Trilateral Diplomacy: China tried forming a trilateral grouping with Pakistan and Bangladesh to diplomatically isolate India, although Bangladesh has not fully accepted this alignment.
  
  
• Military & Strategic Moves:
  
  
• China is helping Bangladesh revive the Lalmonirhat airbase, increasing military presence close to India’s northeast.
  
  
• It openly supported Pakistan during Operation Sindoor, applying pressure on India’s strategic vulnerabilities.
  
  
• Territorial Assertiveness:
  
  
• China continues its standardisation of place names in Arunachal Pradesh, asserting territorial claims.
  
  
• It plans to build a large hydroelectric dam on the Yarlung Zangbo (Brahmaputra) in Tibet, which may affect water flows into India, raising environmental and strategic concerns.
  
  
• Economic Leverage:
  
  
• China controls vital supply chains in rare earths, pharmaceuticals, and machinery, giving it economic leverage over Indian industries.
  

India’s Balancing Act and the Pitfalls of Silence

• Neutral Global Stance:
  
  
• India often abstains from voting in conflicts like Israel-Gaza, Israel-Iran, and Ukraine, aiming to maintain strategic autonomy and avoid entanglement.
  
  
• Impact on Global Influence:
  
  
• This cautious approach reduces India’s visibility in international negotiations, affecting its geopolitical influence.
  
  
• Economic Focus vs. Strategic Engagement:
  
  
• The idea of focusing only on becoming the world’s third-largest economy is short-sighted.
  
  
• Global economic rules are increasingly shaped by geopolitical dynamics, such as trade protectionism, fragmented norms, and strategic coercion, not just free trade.
  

Regional Geopolitics Beyond Major Powers

• Moves beyond binary alignment with the US or China, focusing instead on regional balancing and strategic autonomy.
  
  
• Strengthening Neighbourhood First policy via economic aid, connectivity (Chabahar, Kaladan), and disaster response.
  
  
• Leading role in BIMSTEC, IORA, BBIN, and engaging Central Asia via the India-Central Asia Dialogue.
  
  
• Deepening ties with Africa, Latin America, ASEAN, and Pacific Islands through developmental diplomacy, defence cooperation, and soft power.
  
  
• Responding to China's Belt and Road Initiative through infrastructure partnerships (IMEC, Quad Infrastructure Working Group) and trusted tech alliances.

Technology, Climate, and Resource Diplomacy

• Emerging as a tech-diplomacy leader via platforms like the Global Digital Public Infrastructure Repository and India Stack diplomacy.
  
  
• Founder of the International Solar Alliance (ISA) and Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) — shaping climate cooperation from the Global South.
  
  
• Strategic focus on green hydrogen, bioenergy, lithium partnerships (e.g., with Argentina, Australia) and critical minerals diplomacy.
  
  
• Advocates for climate equity and CBDR-RC (Common But Differentiated Responsibilities) in global climate forums (UNFCCC, COP summits).
  
  
• Expanding cyber diplomacy, semiconductor alliances, and AI governance frameworks with Quad, EU, and Indo-Pacific partners.

India’s Foreign Policy: The Way Forward

India is navigating a complex global landscape with an unpredictable US, an unresponsive EU, and an aggressive China. Its foreign policy must evolve strategically.

Rethinking Stance on Global Conflicts

• India should reconsider its tendency to remain neutral or passive in global conflicts.
  
  
• Staying on the sidelines may weaken India’s geopolitical influence.
  
  
• Examples:
  
  
• India remained silent or appeared pro-Israel during the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict, despite the human tragedy unfolding.
  
  
• India did not strongly react to the Israel-Iran conflict or American bombings, despite having strategic ties with both sides and significant stakes in the Gulf.
  
  
• India abstained from voting on the Russia-Ukraine war at the United Nations, following a cautious approach.
  

Lessons from Operation Sindoor

• Operation Sindoor showed that for India to receive international support in its own conflicts, it must also engage with global issues.
  
  
• International relations are often based on strategic interests and alliances, not just on moral positioning.
  

Assertiveness and Strategic Autonomy

• India should be more assertive while maintaining strategic autonomy.
  
  
• This includes:
  
  
• Conducting tough negotiations with the US.
  
  
• Signing critical deals to build mutual trust.
  
  
• Finalizing an India-US trade deal quickly to improve relations and possibly secure a US presidential visit for the upcoming Quad Summit.
  

Embracing Multi-alignment

• India must avoid overdependence on the US.
  
  
• It should strengthen ties within BRICS, especially with the 2026 summit hosted in India.
  
  
• Enhance participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
  
  
• Reconnect with East Asia, acknowledging the missed opportunity of RCEP.