INDIA-PAKISTAN RELATIONS: STRATEGIC ENGAGEMENT VS STRUCTURAL DEADLOCK

5th February, 2026

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Picture Courtesy:  INDIAN EXPRESS

Context

The question of India-Pakistan diplomatic engagement revolves around the fundamental dilemma of whether dialogue is possible while maintaining an uncompromising position against terrorism.

Read all about: Stable Pakistan Threat to India l  Hazards Of Going Global On India-Pakistan Issues

India's Terror Policy Shift l India Suspends Indus Water Treaty l INDIA-PAKISTAN RELATIONS

The Historical "Cyclical Trap" in Bilateral Relations

For over two decades, India-Pakistan relations have been stuck in a predictable and damaging cycle: Hope → Engagement → Betrayal → Deadlock

Diplomatic breakthroughs have been consistently sabotaged by terror attacks, often linked to the Pakistani "deep state," to derail the peace process.

  • Lahore Declaration (1999): Was immediately followed by the Kargil War.
  • Visa Liberalisation Talks (2008): Were derailed by the 26/11 Mumbai Terror Attacks.
  • PM Modi’s Lahore Visit (2015): Was followed shortly by the Pathankot Airbase Attack (2016) and the Uri attack.

The "Doctrine of Disengagement" led India to condition dialogue with Pakistan on credible action against terrorism, resulting in the suspension of the SAARC summit process since 2016 and the downgrading of diplomatic ties after 2019.

Limitations of a "Strategic Silence" Policy

While isolating Pakistan has yielded some diplomatic gains, a permanent "no-contact" policy carries long-term risks.

Risk of Unmanaged Escalation

Absence of communication channels means a minor provocation or a rogue terror attack could spiral into a full-scale conflict due to misinterpretation.  

The "Echo Chamber" Effect

Without official dialogue, hyper-nationalist rhetoric dominates public discourse, shrinking the political space for future leaders to pursue peaceful negotiations.

Economic Opportunity Cost

The lack of regional connectivity hurts economic growth for both nations. Trade potential is immense but remains untapped due to political hostility.

Metric

Figure

Source

Potential India-Pakistan Trade

$37 billion

World Bank Report, 2018

Actual Trade (2023-24)

$1.35 billion

Ministry of Commerce & Industry 

"Incremental Diplomacy": A Proposed Way Forward

Instead of starting with immediate, high-stakes comprehensive dialogues, a more effective strategy is a "layered engagement" that begins with lower-risk sectors to build trust and create peace-advocating groups.

People-to-People and Cultural Engagement

Soft power initiatives, such as the successful "insulated cooperation" of the Kartarpur Sahib Corridor, help reduce state hostility even during diplomatic freezes. 

Expanding soft power efforts through actions like re-establishing medical visas and academic exchanges could further strengthen relationships.

Humanitarian and Ecological Cooperation

Both nations face shared threats that transcend political boundaries, providing a neutral ground for cooperation. Key areas include:

  • Climate Change: Jointly tackling challenges like smog, melting Himalayan glaciers, and extreme heatwaves.
  • Disaster Management: Establishing a regional mechanism for flood response, building on the goodwill from India’s aid offer during the 2022 Pakistan floods.

Maintaining Technical Treaties

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960 has survived three wars, proving that technical cooperation can endure political friction, though India suspended it in 2025 after Pahalgam attack and is currently demanding modifications to reflect modern environmental and demographic realities.

Essential Security Safeguards for Engagement

Any form of engagement must be conditional and performance-based, not an endorsement of Pakistan's policies. India must maintain a position of strength with clear red lines.

The FATF Benchmark: India should continue using platforms like the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to ensure Pakistan takes irreversible action against terror financing and UN-designated terrorists.

Calibrated "Action-for-Action": India can set clear, achievable benchmarks for Pakistan (e.g., prosecuting 26/11 handlers) and respond with calibrated, reciprocal gestures (e.g., restoring sporting ties) only when they are met.

Managed Competition

The strategy advocates for a firm counter-terrorism policy while also pursuing practical, low-risk areas of cooperation. Implementation should be "bottom-up," prioritizing concrete, local achievements over major political events.

Learn from Global Best Practice (The China-Taiwan Model)

Despite deep political hostility, China and Taiwan maintain robust economic ties. This model shows it is possible to separate hard security issues (borders, terrorism) from functional cooperation (trade, climate).

Conclusion 

As former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee stated, "Friends can be changed, but not neighbors." India's strategy must be pragmatic, combining a strong security posture with intelligent, people-centric diplomacy to manage a complex and unavoidable relationship.

Source:  INDIAN EXPRESS

PRACTICE QUESTION

Q. How has the possession of nuclear weapons by both nations since 1998 changed the nature of their conventional military conflicts? 150 words

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

The core of the dispute remains the territory of Jammu and Kashmir. Since the Partition of 1947, both nations have claimed the region in its entirety but control only parts of it, separated by the Line of Control (LoC). India maintains that the entire state is its sovereign territory following legal accession, while Pakistan calls for a UN-mandated plebiscite.

Relations are currently strained and at a low point. Formal diplomatic dialogue has been largely suspended since 2019, following India's revocation of the special status of Jammu & Kashmir (Article 370). While a ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control (LoC) was reaffirmed in 2021, regular diplomatic engagement is minimal.

It is the region of Jammu and Kashmir under Pakistani control, which India considers illegally occupied territory since the 1947-48 war.

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