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Source: The Hindu

Context

The June 13, 2025 Israeli military operation "Rising Lion," which targets Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities, marks a watershed moment in the long-running Jewish-Persian confrontation.  Both Israeli and Iranian leaders understand its historical significance, raising concerns about extended regional instability and worldwide economic consequences.

Historical and Strategic Background

• Ancient Rivalry: The Israel-Iran conflict has deep historical roots, tracing back to 586 BCE, reflecting centuries-old tensions.
  
  
• Contemporary Trigger: The current escalation is largely fueled by Iran’s nuclear ambitions and Israel’s strategic imperative to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities.
  
  
• Operation “Rising Lion”: A significant turning point in the conflict, Israel launched a swift and massive air operation.
  
  
• Over 200 fighter jets participated.
  
  
• More than 100 strategic Iranian targets were hit.
  
  
• Key objectives included nuclear facilities, senior Iranian military officials, and nuclear scientists, indicating a focus on dismantling Iran's nuclear infrastructure and leadership.

Proxy Conflicts and Strategic Preparations

• 21 Months of Proxy Warfare: The attack followed nearly two years of confrontation with Iranian proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.
  
  
• Regional Re-engineering:
  
  
• Israel backed the installation of a HTS-led Sunni regime in Syria, effectively weakening Iran’s influence and strategic positioning in the region.
  
  
• The move served to dismantle Iran’s land corridor connecting it to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Military and Technological Enhancements

• Since October 7, 2023, Israel significantly enhanced its defensive and offensive capabilities:
  
  
• Development and deployment of laser-beam defense systems to intercept aerial threats.
  
  
• Acquisition and utilization of bunker-buster ammunition to target deep underground nuclear facilities in Iran.

What are the strategic goals driving Israel's "Rising Lion" campaign against Iran?

• It is Israel's goal to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons and long-range missile capabilities so that they cannot be used by Iran. For instance, a hundred and fifty locations, including missile and nuclear facilities, were struck by more than two hundred Israeli Air Force planes.
• The operation aims to eliminate key military leadership by targeting Iran's command structure. This will disrupt strategic coordination and undermine the capability for response. For instance, there were assassinations of high-ranking officials such as the chief of staff of the armed forces and leaders of the Revolutionary Guard.
• Israel plans to shift regional power relations and strengthen its deterrent by unleashing a preemptive, technology-driven blitzkrieg. For instance, in addition to systematic airstrikes and provocative assassinations, the campaign comes after 21 months of pressure on Iran and its proxies.

U.S. Foreign Policy and Escalation of the Israel-Iran Conflict

• Withdrawal from the JCPOA (2018):
  The U.S., under the Trump administration, exited the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, ending diplomatic engagement and leading to a spike in Iran’s nuclear activity. The "maximum pressure" sanctions regime intensified tensions.
  
  
• Economic Strangulation Strategy:
  Aimed at weakening Iran, the U.S. pressured Saudi Arabia to flood the oil market, reducing Iran’s revenue. Diplomatic efforts included pushing the IAEA to censure Iran ahead of Israeli military responses.
  
  
• Strategic and Military Alignments:
  The U.S. reinforced ties with Israel and regional players, creating a containment network around Iran. Examples include the June 12 IAEA resolution, U.S. airstrikes on Houthis, and renewed ties with Pakistan, indirectly encouraging Israeli assertiveness.

Implications for the Sunni Arab World & Global Oil Supply

• Strait of Hormuz at Risk:
  The conflict threatens freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, through which ~20% of global oil passes. Iran may block or militarize the route in retaliation.
  
  
• Sectarian Fallout:
  Iran could mobilize Shia minorities in Sunni-majority states (e.g., Saudi Arabia, Bahrain), risking internal unrest and challenging national security.
  
  
• Proxy Conflicts & Blowback:
  Iran-backed groups—Hezbollah, Houthis, Iraqi militias—might attack Sunni regimes or U.S.-aligned infrastructure, particularly in UAE or Saudi Arabia.
  
  
• Oil Price Shock:
  Even without direct conflict, fear of escalation can raise global oil prices, leading to inflation, especially in import-dependent economies like India.
  
  
• Strategic Dilemma for Arab States:
  Sunni powers are caught between opposing Iran and avoiding war. Eg: Saudi Arabia and UAE avoid openly siding with Israel to prevent Iranian retaliation.

Impact on India

• Energy Security Concerns:
  With over 85% crude oil imports, India faces vulnerability. A price hike in Brent crude may widen the current account deficit, spike fuel prices, and trigger domestic inflation.
  
  
• Diplomatic Balancing Act:
  India must balance ties with Israel (defence and tech partner) and Iran (energy and Chabahar Port). The situation strains India’s strategic autonomy.
  
  
• Risks to Diaspora & Trade Routes:
  Over 8 million Indians live in West Asia. Escalation could endanger them and disrupt vital Persian Gulf trade, affecting remittances and exports.
  

Way Forward

• Difficult Final Goals: The original objectives might not be achieved. Iran may adapt and retaliate instead of collapsing as predicted, similar to Iraq after Desert Storm.
• Potential for Regime Change or Escalation: The United States may be compelled to become involved in a protracted war, which might result in a change of government in Iran or a redistribution of power in the area.
• Strategic Errors: Iran's pursuit of nuclear deterrent may have jeopardized its own security, costing an estimated $100 billion. This present dispute may serve as evidence of that unforeseen result.

Practice Question Q. Examine the regional and global consequences of Israel’s “Rising Lion” operation against Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure.