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Context

In light of the triangular power dynamics between India, Pakistan, and the United States, India must consider developing geostrategic alignments, historical legacies, and national interests.

What is the Triangular Dynamic in South Asia’s Power Politics?

Strategic imperatives, political ideologies, national interests, and historical legacies all have an impact on South Asia's triangular relationship between the US, India, and Pakistan. The recent exchanges between the United States and Pakistan, notably under Donald Trump's presidency, have serious ramifications for regional politics.

Shift in U.S.-Pakistan Relations

Transactional Diplomacy Over Strategic Values: The U.S., especially under the Trump administration, shifted towards deal-based engagements, moving away from traditional value-based alliances.

Example: Authorization of $397 million for Pakistan’s F-16 fleet under the label of “counter-terrorism” suggests a focus on short-term tactical gains over long-term strategic commitments, particularly with India.

Pakistan’s Geostrategic Leverage: Pakistan’s location near Afghanistan, Iran, and China gives it renewed strategic importance in U.S. regional calculations. Trump’s praise for Pakistan’s role in engaging Iran, and his meeting with “Field Marshal” Asim Munir, indicates U.S. readiness to re-engage despite Pakistan’s terrorism-linked image.

Impact on U.S.-India Strategic Relations

Erosion of Strategic Trust: India-U.S. ties, built on counterterrorism cooperation and shared concerns on China, face strain. Trump’s mediation claim in the India-Pakistan conflict contradicted India’s “no third-party” policy, causing diplomatic unease.
Increased Strategic Caution in India: India may recalibrate foreign policy, reducing dependence on U.S. support in regional matters, and shifting towards self-reliant deterrence and regional alliances.
Undermining Indo-Pacific Vision: The Quad and broader Indo-Pacific cooperation could lose momentum due to the U.S.’s diverted focus toward Pakistan and South Asia.

India’s “New Normal” Doctrine: A Strategic Shift in South Asia

India’s “New Normal” marks a significant doctrinal departure from its earlier policy of strategic restraint, especially in response to cross-border terrorism and regional threats. This assertive stance reflects both military and diplomatic recalibrations.

Departure from Strategic Restraint

India’s new doctrine reflects a proactive military posture, moving away from defensive retaliation.
The Pahalgam terror attack catalyzed Operation Sindoor, signaling India’s resolve to punish provocations decisively.
The doctrine reflects a shift towards assertive action rather than symbolic responses to terrorism.

Global Isolation of State-Sponsored Terrorism

India now actively seeks to internationally isolate Pakistan by linking terror attacks to state support.
This aligns with India’s efforts in UN forums to designate Pakistan-based terror groups under sanctions and global watchlists.
The doctrine leverages diplomatic pressure to expose Pakistan’s double-dealing on terrorism.

Regional Deterrence and Strategic Signaling

The strategy aims to deter Pakistan by altering its cost-benefit calculus in using non-state actors.
It sends a strong message to China, particularly amid growing fears of a two-front threat.
Statements like the PM’s remark, calling the India-Pak ceasefire a “pause, not peace,” underscore sustained pressure on both Pakistan and its strategic backer, Beijing.

India’s Doctrinal Shift and Geopolitical Disillusionment

Initial strategic convergence with the Trump administration on Pakistan waned due to US overtures towards Islamabad.
In response, India evolved a self-reliant security doctrine, combining hard power with global advocacy.
This shift reflects New Delhi’s growing concern over Pakistan-China ties and the rising complexity of regional security dynamics.

Pakistan's Diplomatic Efforts and Reorientation

Pakistan, which is facing both domestic political unrest and international challenges, is employing a multi-faceted approach, combining military might with diplomatic adroitness.
Asim Munir's elevation to the rank of field marshal is clear evidence of the military's growing influence within Pakistan's framework for national security.
Rawalpindi is determined to impose authority both at home and abroad, and this harsh state policy, which is resistant to civilian monitoring, reflects that.
At the same time, Pakistan is asserting its strategic importance to the United States by capitalizing on its location at the crossroads of South, West, and Central Asia.
Pakistan is attempting to regain its economic relevance and lifelines through a charm drive that includes personal diplomacy, rare earth resource transactions, and economic discussions.
Pakistan is geographically advantageous and nimble in diplomatic channels, which make up for its smaller population and weaker economy compared to India.

America’s Balancing Act and Strategic Ambivalence

The United States is currently in a state of strategic ambivalence regarding South Asia.
India's role in the Indo-Pacific and frameworks like the Quad align it with American strategic interests.
However, Trump’s administration emphasized trade deals and personal diplomacy over long-term institutional commitments.
Any hyphenation of India and Pakistan, treating them as equals, undermines India’s global aspirations and may alienate a key democratic ally.

Pakistan’s Enduring Relevance

Pakistan’s relevance in US foreign policy is rooted in bothits geostrategic location and its military’s adept diplomacy.
It lies close to regional flashpoints like Iran, Afghanistan, and China, making it strategically significant.
Its intelligence and logistical capabilities keep it valuable in the eyes of certain Washington circles.
This perception allows Pakistan to act as a counterweight to India, despite India's economic and demographic advantages.

Concerns for India:

Indians are wary of Trump's efforts to improve relations between the United States and Pakistan because they see them as a threat to India's regional security.
Damage to the fragile diplomatic reputation and strategic trust that India has worked so hard to earn from the United States.
Through military-driven diplomacy, the Pakistani military has supplanted the civilian government as the country's primary determinant of foreign policy. During the height of the U.S.-China competition, it seeks to exploit geopolitical position.
A two-front threat has Indians worried, thanks to the strengthening of the Sino-Pakistani axis.
The United States' Partisan Balancing Act highlights the country's shift away from value-based alliances and toward interest-based realism; it aims to maintain influence in Afghanistan and Pakistan without severing ties with India.
The triangle dynamic has exacerbated regional instability and presented India with additional diplomatic obstacles.

Way Forward

Reducing the impact of personality-driven adjustments, India and the United States can enhance their strategic dialogue by engaging more deeply at the institutional level to reaffirm joint interests in the Indo-Pacific, counterterrorism, and technological alliances.
In order to expand its strategic alternatives and lessen its reliance on the whims of U.S. foreign policy, India should pursue regional strategic autonomy by continuing to develop bilateral and multilateral ties with like-minded countries.

Practice Question

Q. To what extent could the use of soft power, like sports and cultural exchanges, help generate goodwill between India and Pakistan? Discuss with suitable examples.

A Triangular Dynamic in South Asia’s Power Politics