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Source: The Hindu

Context

China recently hosted the first China-Pakistan-Bangladesh trilateral dialogue in Kunming, following a China-Pakistan-Afghanistan meeting, indicating a strategic push to strengthen Beijing's influence in South Asia.

What's the Nexus?

• The emerging China-Pakistan-Bangladesh and China-Pakistan-Afghanistan trilaterals are Beijing's strategic tool for increasing its geopolitical clout in South Asia.
• China sets the agenda, while Pakistan gains strategic relevance; Bangladesh and Afghanistan are drawn into China's orbit for political, economic, and connectivity influence.

Why is China increasing its regional engagement as India rises?

• To Counter India's Strategic Clout: As India expands economically and diplomatically, China seeks to undermine its influence in neighboring countries. For example, China's trilateral with Pakistan and Bangladesh came after India strengthened its ties with Afghanistan and regional powers.
• To Capitalize on Shifting Political Landscapes: China is using regime changes in countries such as Afghanistan and Bangladesh to bring them closer into its orbit. For example, following Bangladesh's regime change in 2024, China increased its efforts to engage Dhaka through trilaterals.
• To Protect and Expand Economic Interests: Rising Indian assertiveness threatens China's economic initiatives, particularly BRI projects. Regional engagement helps to protect these investments. For example, China wants to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan to secure trade routes and regional access.

How does the China-Pakistan nexus influence India's security strategy?

• Increased Two-Front Security Threat: The China-Pakistan partnership requires India to prepare for simultaneous threats on its western and northern borders, complicating military planning. For example, during Operation Sindoor (2025), Pakistan used Chinese-made drones, radars, and fighter jets, forcing India to adjust its defense posture.
• Diplomatic Isolation Attempts: China frequently defends Pakistan on global platforms, shielding it from international scrutiny, particularly on terror-related issues. For example, China has blocked UN resolutions targeting Pakistani-sponsored terrorists, limiting India's global counterterrorism diplomacy.
• Regional Instability through Trilateral Engagements: China promotes trilateral meetings with Pakistan and India's neighbours in order to isolate New Delhi and create regional pressure points. For example, the China-Pakistan-Bangladesh trilateral seeks to undermine India's influence in South Asia while diverting attention away from long-term strategic objectives.

China-Pakistan-Bangladesh Nexus

• First trilateral meeting held in Kunming, China, marking a new phase of strategic coordination.
  
  
• Poses a potential security threat to India’s “Chicken Neck” region (Siliguri Corridor) if Bangladesh aligns closely with China.
  
  
• China’s investments in Bangladeshi ports: Notably in Chittagong and Payra, indicating deepening maritime influence.

China-Pakistan-Afghanistan Nexus

• CPEC expansion plans into Afghanistan, aligning with China's Belt and Road Initiative.
  
  
• China's interest in Afghanistan’s estimated $1 trillion mineral resources is a key driver.
  
  
• Highlights a strategic ambition to control resource-rich and geopolitically sensitive regions.

Deepening China-Pakistan Ties

• China is Pakistan’s largest arms supplier, accounting for 80% of weaponry, including J-10C fighter jets.
  
  
• CPEC investment commitment: Nearly $50 billion, with $29 billion already invested.
  
  
• China shields Pakistan-based terrorists like Masood Azhar at the UN, despite being part of SCO's RATS, reflecting a double standard on terrorism.

“China-Pakistan Plus One” Strategy

• Aimed at drawing third countries such as Afghanistan or Bangladesh into a broader China-Pakistan strategic orbit.
  
  
• Intensifies geopolitical challenges for India, especially in South Asia.
  
  

Broader Regional Influence

• Sri Lanka: China controls Hambantota Port under a 99-year lease.
  
  
• Maldives: Attempting to establish a military base, signaling expansion in the Indian Ocean.
  
  
• Nepal: Growing influence via political involvement and Trans-Himalayan Railway project.
  
  
• Iran: $400 billion oil deal over 25 years; collaborating on Gwadar-Chabahar link and Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline.

On India
Security Threat Intensification	Legitimizes China-Pakistan coordination on cross-border terrorism (e.g., Pahalgam attack, 2025).
Diplomatic Disruption	Complicates India’s traditional diplomatic influence in Bangladesh and Afghanistan.
BRI Encroachment	Strengthens China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the region, undermining India-led alternatives like BBIN and the Chabahar route.
On South Asian Stability
Strategic Polarization	Smaller nations are forced to choose between India and China, increasing regional fragmentation.
Proxy Conflict Risks	Pakistan may exploit Chinese support to escalate state-sponsored terrorism, threatening regional peace.
Undermining Regional Platforms	SAARC-like initiatives may become ineffective due to increasing external (Chinese) influence.

Way Forward

• Improve Strategic Partnerships in South Asia: India should strengthen bilateral ties with its neighbours through infrastructure support, trade cooperation, and regional connectivity projects. Strengthening initiatives such as BIMSTEC and the Act East Policy can help to balance China's influence.
• Assert Regional Leadership Through Security and Diplomacy: India must continue to spearhead anti-terror cooperation, defend regional sovereignty, and establish clear red lines for any hostile alliances. At the same time, it should advocate for inclusive regional forums that prioritize peace and mutual development.

Practice Question Q. How does the emerging trilateral nexus between China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh redefine India's strategic landscape in South Asia?